January 2017 Archives - Page 10 of 11 - New York Metro Weather

Zone 5 (Southern NJ) Update: Significant snow through tonight

January 7, 2017/by John Homenuk

Regional analysis suggests the development of a coastal storm will continue over the next few hours. The most recent near term/mesoscale models continue to remain relatively steady with a continuation of moderate to heavy snow over Southern New Jersey through the afternoon hours. Currently, the juxtaposition of moisture and lift is creating a substantial area of moderate and heavy snow throughout the area.

Increasing lift in the atmosphere will be supported by the developing storm system and the presence of a very notable jet streak in the atmosphere’s upper levels. This will allow precipitation to expand to the northwest of the low pressure area, which will be off the coast of the Mid Atlantic states during the middle part of the day today.

10am Update Zone 2: Snow increasing in intensity

January 7, 2017/by John Homenuk

Regional analysis suggests the development of a coastal storm will continue over the next few hours. The most recent near term/mesoscale models continue to remain relatively steady with the development of heavier snow over the next few hours over Long Island. The increase in intensity will be gradual, as lift and moisture in the atmosphere begin to increase. Snow accumulations will also be gradual to occur through 12:00pm.

Increasing lift in the atmosphere will be supported by the developing storm system and the presence of a very notable jet streak in the atmosphere’s upper levels. This will allow precipitation to expand to the northwest of the low pressure area, which will be off the coast of the Mid Atlantic states during the middle part of the day today.

Significant snowstorm likely near the coast on Saturday

January 6, 2017/by Doug Simonian

The rollercoaster with the model runs has continued today, with regards to Saturday’s winter storm. However, for the most part, guidance continues to trend west, and there are some reasons to believe that will continue. There is still a limit as to how far west this can go, though, and the cutoff to the west looks pretty sharp, so this may only be a “major” snowstorm for Eastern Long Island. Still, it’s looking like a snowier Saturday than first thought a few days ago.

Generally speaking over the past few days, the models have become much more impressive with the strength of the initial shortwave that entered the US from the Pacific. It’s now in the southern stream and tapping into a lot of Gulf of Mexico moisture, leading to some strong thunderstorms in the deep South. Sometimes what happens here is that once the models realize that there is plenty of convection going on, the latent heat in the atmosphere increases, which leads to higher heights along the East Coast and thus further northwest shifts. This appears to be happening in today’s model guidance.

Light Snowfall Likely Tonight into Early Friday

January 5, 2017/by Miguel Pierre

A polar shortwave disturbance will cause low pressure to develop along the North Carolina coast this evening, with a low pressure area slowly intensifying and tracking to the northeast. The storm system will remain relatively progressive, with the brunt of its precipitation remaining over the Atlantic Ocean.

However, with some lift fro, an upper-level jet streak overhead, snow is likely to spread throughout parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England later tonight into Thursday morning. Most of the snow is expected to fall on the lighter side of the intensity scale, with liquid totals only expected to reach .10″ – .25″.

However, instability and large omega (lift) in the snow growth region will likely to lead to the formation of large dendrites. Snow ratios from this event could be as high as 20 to 1 in some areas. With that in mind, snowfall totals of 1-3″ are expected throughout much of the region. Roads could be slick or snow covered for Friday’s morning commute.

4km NAM model sounding for JFK airport showing large dendrite snow growth

Some lower amounts are possible well inland where moisture will be more limited. Heavier banding may occur closer to the coast, especially over the NJ coast and Long Island with the potential for isolated totals upwards of 3”. Snow will taper off Thursday morning as low pressure moves away from the region. Clouds will break for some sunshine in the afternoon as drier moves into the region.

Storm Total Snowfall Forecast updated January 5th, 2017

Another storm threatens the region this weekend — more details on that coming tonight for Premium members.

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