Posts

John Homenuk

Timing and breadth of cold will be critical as February approaches

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Good evening! We’ve discussed for some time now the expected development (or should we say return) of anomalous cold across the Northern Hemisphere, more specifically the southward movement of this cold into Canada and the United States. In our post yesterday, we dove into the details of why we are so confident that this cold will occur, and how the seeds are already planted and growing for the change to occur.

However, while we look ahead to the cold’s development and entrance into Canada and the United States, it will become increasingly important for us to understand the timing of the pattern change – including where the cold will be most prevalent first, and how it is expected to move across the country. While pinning down these details is an inherently imperfect science at this range, we can utilize multiple long-range forecasting tools and analogs to find clues as to how things will behave.

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Steven Copertino

UPDATE: Significant Winter Storm Aimed At The East Coast, Dangerous Cold Friday & Saturday

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Good evening! 

Today has been yet another in an impressive stretch of days below-freezing across the majority of the Northeast! Conditions were mainly calm, with patches of mid to high level clouds racing from southwest to northeast due to a strong/developing jet stream over the Northeast. An area of high pressure has been quickly moving offshore, which has shifted winds to the south over portions of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. This subtle change was enough to bring in temperatures in the middle to upper 20’s for most of the NYC metro area, with 30’s further to the south. As we head into the night, we expect cloud cover to gradually increase as the large area of low pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean begins to expand substantially to the west and ushers in some mid-lower level clouds. Southerly low level flow will keep conditions a bit warmer than the past few nights, but expect lows to stay in the lower to middle 20’s over the immediate NYC metro, with upper teens likely to the north and west. Things should stay dry for most of the area up until midnight, when some initial light to moderate snow may begin to nose into the southern portions of New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

QUICK LINKS: Latest Snowfall Forecast | Latest Video Discussion

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Miguel Pierre

Why the MJO and stratosphere are so critical for wintry weather in February

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As we move into February we are likely to see another change in the hemispheric weather pattern. Once again, changes with MJO/tropical forcing and in the stratosphere will play a major role in this shift. In our long-range outlook update on Saturday, we discussed these features and how they may potentially influence the atmospheric pattern. Here we will discuss what influence these climate phenomenon will have on pattern during the February and into first half March.

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John Homenuk

Evening All Zones: Improving weather during the midweek

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A quick, light winter storm impacted parts of the area today, mainly in from Northern NJ into NYC, LI and parts of CT. 1 to 3 inches of snow fell in most of the aforementioned areas, with accumulations on all surfaces and snow throughout much of the day. The low pressure system associated with the disturbances in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is shifting eastwards today, developing south of New England.

A few snow showers remain in the Northern Mid Atlantic this evening, and will continue to shift north and east as the evening goes on. Lift in the atmosphere will decrease significantly as the overnight period goes on. The best chance for continued snow in our region will be in Northern Connecticut. Elsewhere, improving conditions are expected.

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