Posts

John Homenuk

1/29 AM Zone 4/5 (Coastal NJ): Clipper snows scrape the shore

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A weak low pressure system, developing as a result of mid and upper level energy int he atmosphere surging southeastward from Canada, will develop off the coast of New Jersey on Monday morning. Forecast models have struggled with the exact track, intensity and location of the low pressure as it develops, leading to considerable forecast uncertainty over the next 12 to 24 hours. However, better agreement recently has increased confidence in impacts.

The low pressure system is developing from what is called a “clipper” system, or a piece of fast moving energy that drives southeastwards from Canada and then quickly moves out to sea or back northwards towards its origin. These storms can sometimes develop more rapidly and deepen if the energy is slower or more intense — but that is not the case here. However, a low pressure system will still develop offshore, and the juxtaposition of moisture and lift in the atmosphere will lead to the potential for bands of snow in the region on Monday morning.

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Steven Copertino

1/27 PM Zone Update: Gusty, return to seasonable conditions this weekend

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Today has been yet another cooler departure from the previous few days as much of the region is currently experiencing mostly cloudy conditions with some disorganized snow showers moving through the eastern areas of Pennsylvania and southern New York. These disorganized squalls have made some progress into central and southern New Jersey, but ultimately will have a limited impacts for the New York metro this afternoon and evening. Downslope flow and drier air work to keep these squalls on the lighter side and confined mainly to the north and western regions. However it is important to note that some of these bands could work their way down later this afternoon and produce reduced visibility as well as slippery roads for some folks in the area, so it is important to remain alert during the afternoon commute.

Otherwise, the main focus for the rest of today will be the gusty winds of around 20-30 mph affecting most of our area which can be attributed to a large low pressure system over eastern Canada. The locally higher areas of winds can be seen in the latest visible satellite imagery as ripples in the overall cloud pattern. As temperatures once again drop down this afternoon to the upper 30’s, we should begin to see the winds diminish and gradually die off once we head into the evening hours. Any remaining squalls and the mostly cloudy conditions should also depart this evening as temperatures fall into the middle to low 30’s for most of the area, with upper 20’s possible in the outlying regions.

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Miguel Pierre

1/26 PM Zone Update: Colder weather arrives this weekend

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After some showers this morning, skies cleared for more sunshine with temperatures in the 50s. It will be breezy this evening with drier westerly winds possibly gusting over 35 mph across parts of region this evening. This is due a tighter pressure gradient over the region. Colder air begins arriving later tonight as temperatures fall into the lower to middle 30s.

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John Homenuk

The importance of the Pacific Ocean in the U.S weather pattern

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Thousands of miles away, in the Northern Pacific Ocean, a large ridge is develops in the atmosphere. This, if only by human nature, seems like a relatively inauspicious development at first. But its presence will be disruptive. Disturbances over the Western Arctic will be dislodged southward into Canada, cold air will push into the Northern 1/3 of the USA. The amplitude of the wave pattern will change. And suddenly, a snowstorm will develop along the East Coast of the United States.

Yes, we’re speaking in the past tense here. This already occurred, just a few weeks ago, during the most impactful winter weather event so far this winter in the Eastern United States. The root cause of the storm system, in relation to the atmospheric pattern, can be traced back to the Pacific Ocean, where a large developing ridge near Alaska completely changed what was an otherwise stale weather pattern.

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