Posts

John Homenuk

1/24 AM All Zones: Coastal storm offshore, rain lingers

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A surface low pressure system, associated with a strong mid and upper level disturbance in the atmosphere, is still off the coast of New Jersey this morning. The storm will linger through early this afternoon as it continues to weaken and shift east/northeast away from the area. Moisture and lift associated with the storm have weakened considerably, but still exist near the area.

Accordingly, bands of rain are continuing to shift into the area, moving east to west from the Atlantic Ocean. These bands will be capable of producing periods of rain throughout the early afternoon hours. In the interior and higher elevations, colder temperatures may allow for periods of sleet or freezing rain which may cause slick roadways.

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John Homenuk

Coastal Zones (2,4,5) Update: Rain, strong winds continue

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A developing low pressure system along the Delmarva coast will strengthen over the next several hours, shifting north and northwestwards. Initially a few hundred miles offshore, the low pressure will develop to a position very close to the coast of New Jersey by later tonight into Tuesday morning. Bands of heavy precipitation will rotate inland from the Atlantic, with torrential rain likely overnight. Rainfall amounts should exceed 2″ over a large area.

The precipitation is being facilitated by a strong low level jet (transport of wind in the low levels of the atmosphere). This low level jet is bringing anomalous moisture and lift with it, leading to heavy precipitation. In addition to the presence of heavy precipitation, the low level jet is also accompanied by strong winds.

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John Homenuk

Public Analysis: Strong Nor’Easter brings a myriad of impacts today

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A well discussed and documented Nor’Easter will develop later today from the Mid Atlantic states to the Delmarva coast, bringing heavy precipitation and a myriad of hazardous weather to the area which will continue through Tuesday. The low pressure area, currently located over the Central Mid Atlantic States, will continue shifting northeast today with precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, shifting northward. This afternoon, the situation becomes more complex as the storm moves off the Delmarva coast and begins strengthening.

This developing offshore low pressure will be quite impressive — and will bring various types of hazardous weather to different geographic locations this afternoon and evening. Wintry weather is possible in the interior and higher elevations, heavy rain is likely area-wide, coastal flooding and strong winds are likely near the coast.

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Miguel Pierre

Public Analysis: Heavy rain and strong winds likely on Monday

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A large storm system will develop throughout the Eastern United States on Monday, organizing first in the lower Mid Atlantic region and then shifting northeastwards. A large upper level low will form in the atmosphere, with impressive atmospheric dynamics shifting from the Southeast states up the East Coast. The dynamics of the storm are impressive: A High Risk of severe weather has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center in Georgia and Florida today.

Gradually, a surface low pressure is forecast to develop from the Delmarva coast northeastwards off the coast of the Mid Atlantic. A large area of moisture will surge northwards up the East Coast, with significant lift in the atmosphere tapping into this moisture and aiding in the development of very heavy rain. Rainfall totals of 1-3″ are possible — with some flooding in low lying and poor drainage areas.

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