Posts

John Homenuk

Prolonged onshore winds, tidal flooding on area shores

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While the main story of the past several days has obviously been Hurricane Joaquin, the synoptic pattern results in several weather hazards regardless of the storms path. As mentioned a few days ago, the path of Joaquin was a concern, but hazardous weather was likely to occur whether the storm tracked toward our area or not.

As a large high pressure system builds from our north toward Southeast Canada and New England, the lowering pressures to our south and east will aid in a continually tightening pressure gradient. At the surface, east/northeasterly winds will continue to surge toward the area coasts — specifically the New Jersey coast — resulting in increased wave heights. With rising tides and seas, coastal flooding is likely to occur through the weekend.

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Doug Simonian

Joaquin strengthens, models shift dramatically seaward with track

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As it moved through the very warm ocean waters near the Bahamas on Thursday, Hurricane Joaquin strengthened further, reaching Category 4 status on Thursday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds reached 130 miles per hour. The National Hurricane Center suggests additional strengthening is possible, with maximum sustained winds approaching 140 miles per hour.

Computer models have continued their immense struggles with the track and intensity of Joaquin. A storm which was modeled by only a select few to become a major hurricane just days ago, has strengthened far beyond additional expectations. One of the major reasons for this is a farther south track — into warmer waters — which also was not anticipated by modeling until 36-48 hours ago when the ECMWF was the first to suggest a southward jog.

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John Homenuk

Joaquin likely to impact US East Coast, local impacts uncertain

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Hurricane Joaquin strengthened this morning, with maximum sustained winds of 80 miles per hour, in the Caribbean. The hurricane is expected to strengthen further over the next few days as it meanders in the Southwest Atlantic. Warm waters and minimal shear will continue to support storm organization. Thereafter, Joaquin is expected to make a turn northward, moving into the Southwest Atlantic Ocean. As it does so, an energetic disturbance over the Southeast States will race toward the storm. As the two phase, Joaquin is expected to accelerate and make a rapid turn west toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Exactly where the storm tracks, and how strong it is, remains highly uncertain at the present time. Forecast models are struggling with intricate details of the atmospheric setup. Unsurprisingly, small changes in the atmospheric interactions will have big changes on the eventual outcome and effects along the East Coast. The potential envelope of solutions remains extremely large — and so this post will attempt to explain the atmospheric setup, potential scenarios, and possible hazards in our area

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