Posts

John Homenuk

Isolated severe thunderstorms likely today

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A deep southwesterly flow has developed this morning, allowing for increasingly warm mid level temperatures to advect into the area. Surface temperatures, as a result, are expected to rise much higher today than they did on Wednesday. Temperatures in the low 90’s are anticipated by early afternoon throughout much of New Jersey and New York City. Humidity will be on the rise as well. An Air Quality Alert is in effect for parts of NJ and NYC today, which means you should avoid prolonged exposure to the heat and humidity as air quality will be subpar. 

A wind shift boundary, sitting just to our north over the Lower Hudson Valley, will serve to enhance the development of instability to its south. Models are in good agreement that upward of 2500 joules of Surface Based CAPE will develop from Eastern PA into New Jersey and New York City during this afternoon. These numbers are quite high for our area — especially during this time of year.

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John Homenuk

PM Update: Pleasant evening, hot and stormy Thursday

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Wednesday turned out to be one of the more beautiful days in the past several weeks. A transitional day, between disturbance, meant highs climbing into the lower 80’s with an abundance of sunshine. But more importantly, lower humidity and a lack of lift and atmospheric instability meant no thunderstorms or rain. Fair weather clouds were the only thing passing by — and the weather was extremely comfortable, even if the sun was a bit hot.

Wednesday evening, temperatures will remain comfortable and winds will continue westerly. This is important, as it negates any marine air or onshore flow (which kept us cool last week). To our north and west, a frontal system and wind shift boundary will move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast on Thursday. So while Wednesday Night will be pleasant and quiet, this boundary will be important for the coming day on Thursday.

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John Homenuk

Heat, severe weather threat will build this week

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Yesterday we wrote that “summer weather was finally here”. Well, if you’ve been here long enough you know that “summer weather” refers to sunshine and warmth, but also brings the potential for thunderstorms, heavy rain, and strong winds. We were able to luck out on Monday, as strong and severe thunderstorms (which produced widespread reports of damaging winds) stayed off to our west. Tuesday will be first day which storms will move through our area.

While the storms on Tuesday aren’t expected to be quite as severe as the ones which brought wind damage to the interior Northeast on Monday, they will still have the potential to produce gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rain. Lightning will, of course, also be a threat in any storms that develop. Instability will be a bit less than ideal for widespread storms, but wind shear may help them organize. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, mainly to the north of NYC into New England. 

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John Homenuk

Showers, thunderstorms likely early this week

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UPDATE 4:00PM: Tornado Watch is now in effect from Eastern PA into Western NJ through 10:00pm. Strong thunderstorms capable of producing strong winds and isolated tornadoes are possible through this evening in these locations. Stay weather aware and have a plan in place in the case that warnings are issued.

A Tornado Watch means that thunderstorms are possible, and some may be capable of producing tornadoes. While not immediately expected, tornadoes are possible during the watch time and in and around the watch area. Be sure to stay weather aware during the watch time period.

These thunderstorms are expected to move east tonight, but weaken as they head toward Eastern NJ and NYC.

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