Posts

Miguel Pierre

3/16 All Zones Noon Update/Snow Map: More Snow Possible This Weekend

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Winter refuses to give up it’s hold on the Northeast United States. Cold and dry weather will continue over the next few days, as the area continues to sit underneath the influence of a large upper-level low centered near New Brunswick, Canada. Another storm system will likely impact the region from early Saturday onward. Precipitation from Saturday evening into Saturday will increase in coverage and intensity, with the possibility of snowfall accumulations throughout the area by Sunday morning.

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John Homenuk

Where did New York City’s blizzard go?

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Let’s cut straight to the point here: Our forecast snowfall amounts in and around New York City were too high. Our snowfall forecast, which by the night before the storm had settled into the 15-18″ range for the metro area, ended up too high by 8-10″, which as you may assume is a much larger spread than we are comfortable with. While the forecast did verify very nicely in many other areas, the I-95 corridor was an area where verification was specifically poor.

Before starting an organized mob with pitchforks and torches to storm your local meteorological office, we’re going to attempt to provide some perspective today. The reality of it is, these kinds of blown forecasts are difficult for us all. The general public — and our clients — planned ahead based on our forecast amounts, and frustration was very high when they didn’t work out. Accordingly, our team worked tirelessly to get the forecast right, spending countless hours pouring over data and pinpointing intricate processes, and getting it wrong was a frustrating and humbling experience.

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John Homenuk

Blizzard likely Tuesday with widespread significant snowfall

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A powerful Nor’Easter is expected to develop off the coast of Mid Atlantic late Monday Night, strengthening and moving to a position southeast of Long Island on Tuesday. Bands of extremely heavy snowfall are expected to rotate inland from the strong storm system, impacting a large majority of the Northeast United States from Washington, DC to Boston — and most areas in between. Snowfall amounts are expected to be significant over a large area.

The storm system is developing as a result of a complex interaction in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, and some uncertainty still exists in regards to the exact track of the storm system. However, confidence is higher than normal that the storm system itself will bring significant impacts. We suggest planning ahead and adjusting your schedule as necessary to accommodate for significantly impactful weather on Tuesday. We’ve laid out a breakdown of the storm system below.

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John Homenuk

PM Zone Update: Blizzard Watches issued ahead of significant storm

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Confidence continues to increase on the development of a significant snowstorm early next week throughout all of our zones. As mentioned in detail over the past several days, two disturbances will drive southward into the Central United States late this weekend and early next week, in response to the development of a blocking ridge in the higher latitudes. These disturbances will interact and phase over the Mississippi River Valley and parts of the Eastern US early next week.

As the two disturbances interact, a strong low pressure system will develop across the Southeast US coast, shifting northwards up the Eastern Seaboard. The exact track of the system is still yet to be determined, and will greatly impact the ultimate impacts that the storm brings our area. However, the envelope of possible solutions continues to tighten — with most solutions impacting all of our zones at least moderate to significantly.

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