Posts

Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: More Dreary Weather Likely Thursday, Improvements This Weekend?

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Good Evening!

Most of the area saw a rather damp and dreary start to the work week today as areas of moderate to heavy rainfall moved over portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This is due in part to a large upper level system over the central part of the country that will be gradually strengthening and progressing eastward over the rest of the week. This should allow for more damp and unsettled conditions down the line, especially on Thursday and Friday. A break from this pattern may be possible by the time we reach the Memorial Day Weekend, but this will all depend on the evolution of the previous systems this week.

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Today Into Tonight

Most of the tri-state area and portions of southern Pennsylvania saw a rather damp and cool day today with highs only reaching into the mid 50’s to lower 60’s. Though much of the area saw rain today, the heaviest bulk of the rain was concentrated to portions of central and southern New Jersey, where localized amounts over 2″ were seen. Further north totals were more in the trace to half-an-inch mark, especially in northwestern New Jersey, southern New York, as well as Connecticut. The rain has begun to pull away from the area, with only coastal sections of New Jersey and Long Island still stuck under steadier showers. Drizzle is likely to last for some locations until after dark, but overall conditions should begin to improve despite mostly cloudy skies. Some clearing may take place towards the late evening hours, or early tomorrow morning, but the cloud cover should be able to hold overnight lows into the lower to middle 50’s for much of the area, including the coast.

A cold front will pass through the area later this evening and usher in a much drier, but also temporary air-mass from the north and west that will work to end any lingering showers that may exist over the area. An area of weak high pressure just north of the region in addition to the introduction of drier air will decrease cloud cover tomorrow afternoon. A weak wave of low pressure will develop along the cold front that passed over our area and this low pressure will begin to move northeastward by later tomorrow afternoon.

Most of this afternoons model guidance keeps this small area of low pressure to the south and east of the area, but there is the possibility that at the very least this low will lead to an increase in cloudiness, but some rain showers are possible along the coastal sections of New Jersey and Long Island. Highs tomorrow will be just slightly warmer than today as highs are able to reach into the upper 60’s and lower 70’s across the area, and some locations may see slightly warmer highs if they are able to experience prolonged periods of clearing. These highs will be slightly below-normal over much of the region, with departures around 5 degrees below-average. With increased cloudiness and windier conditions possible, lows tomorrow evening will likely remain in the middle to upper 50’s, with the possibility of isolated locations holding in the low 60’s.

Latest regional radar data, stations plots, visible satellite imagery , and temperature plots as of this evening showing cloudy, cool, and damp conditions persisting over portions of the area (Courtesy of College of DuPage)

Latest regional radar data, stations plots, visible satellite imagery , and temperature plots as of this evening showing cloudy, cool, and damp conditions persisting over portions of the area (Courtesy of College of DuPage)

Wednesday and Thursday 

Some light rain showers may linger along the coast on Wednesday morning, but as the weak area of low pressure begins to pull away, any potential impacts will begin to diminish. This will lead to improving skies during the afternoon hours with peaks of sunshine, allowing highs to reach into the upper 60’s to middle 70’s over the entire area.

The large upper level low that we have been talking about for over a week now will likely be rotating into the Great Lakes region and portions of the Northeast by late Wednesday evening or very early Thursday morning. As this large system begins to lumber towards us, it will drag up an impressive amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and southwestern Atlantic and begin to transport it northward towards our area. Once this upper level system begins to mature and strengthen, it will spawn a primary area of low pressure over the Appalachian mountains, and potentially another low that may develop just off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

There are some uncertainties regarding this system, but steady, heavier rain is likely during the day on Thursday, especially if the secondary low develops off the coast. However, if the system turns out to mature quicker and becomes more disorganized once it reaches our area, then the rain may be more sporadic and in the form of convection, but will still have the chance to produce some heavy rain.

This afternoons American model showing very impressive upper level jet structure that looks to be quite favorable for heavy rainfall over portions of our area on Thursday (Valid 8am Thursday)

This afternoons American model showing very impressive upper level jet structure that looks to be quite favorable for heavy rainfall over portions of our area on Thursday (Valid 8am Thursday)

Friday and Beyond

This area of low pressure looks to begin to fill-in and stall somewhere over the Northeast on Friday morning due to the high-latitude blocking that has persisted near the Canadian Maritime region and portions of Greenland. This should allow cloudy conditions, cooler temperatures, and  the threat of showers to last throughout the rest of the day as the low lingers around the region during the day.

Some improving weather looks likely for the start of the first big holiday weekend of the Summer,  at least on Saturday and no washouts are anticipated each day. So don’t cancel or change any outdoor plans yet!

However, there may be some left over blocking and some upper level ridging over the West Coast, which may continue to support a somewhat unsettled and potentially active weather pattern into this weekend. At this time, model guidance is beginning to suggest that another storm system tracking northwest of region, that could bring some showers to the region, sometime on Sunday or on Memorial Day. But more forecast details will likely be fined tuned throughout the week.

This afternoons American model showing showing yet another potential system working its way down from Canada around the Memorial Day time frame

This afternoons American model showing showing yet another potential system working its way down from Canada around the Memorial Day time frame

Stay tuned for another for more updates, with discussion on later this week and Memorial Day Weekend!

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Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

Miguel Pierre

5.17 AM Zones Update: Record Heat Possible by Thursday, Cooler Weekend Weather

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Happy Wednesday! As we’ve been discussing this week, a strong ridge will be bring very warm, summer-like temperatures over next few days. Today, mostly sunny skies are expected. 850mb temperatures between 16°C to 17°C with light southwest winds, will support temperatures rise into the mid-upper 80s, away from the coast this afternoon. Some typical hotspots like Newark,NJ may reach around 90. Sea-breezes are likely to develop by early this afternoon, along the coast, with only light southwest flow. This will keep much of Long Island, Coastal Connecticut and the New Jersey shore, from rising out the 70s or lower 80s.

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John Homenuk

Cool, damp weather will lead into a warmer weekend

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A developing coastal storm will keep the weather cooler and more damp today, as Thursday will become the “stinker” of the week so far. Clouds and showers moving toward the area are the initial developmental signs of a coastal storm, which will luckily develop well offshore. But cooler northeast winds and clouds will keep temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s on Thursday. As the storm develops, sinking air in our area will kill the development of showers and bring steadier rain closer to the coastal storm offshore, allowing for some clearing by Thursday evening and a better weather day on Friday.

The long-awaited Memorial Day weekend, luckily, looks to feature improved weather over what we will have experienced on Thursday. Westerly winds will begin to usher in a much warmer airmass for the weekend — initially on Friday featuring temperatures in the mid to upper 70’s. A weak frontal boundary approaching the area Friday afternoon will touch off some showers and thunderstorms, but they won’t be a harbinger of anything bad to come. Saturday and Sunday both look to feature pleasant, seasonable weather which will warm each day.

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Doug Simonian

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, beautiful and warm Sunday through Tuesday

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As many of us look for outdoor activities during Memorial Day Weekend, the weather forecast becomes a bit more important. Fortunately, for the most part, this weekend looks great.

We do have to get through a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon first, however. Similar to yesterday, there is still plenty of instability in the atmosphere, some moisture at the surface, but drying in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. There is also very little in the way of wind shear, which although can prevent storms from becoming too strong, it also makes them slow to move, and trains them over the same areas. Thus, the threat later this afternoon is for pulsing thunderstorms with the potential for flash flooding and small hail, but not much in the way of strong winds.

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Today’s HRRR model shows scattered showers and thunderstorms in the area developing later this afternoon (PSU E-Wall).

Most models target the NE NJ area, NYC, and SW CT, though other areas are at risk, too. Fortunately, not all of us will get these storms, but it might be a good idea to have umbrellas, just in-case. This afternoon should be a similar, but slightly lesser version of yesterday afternoon.

Moving forward to the rest of the weekend is when the weather looks great. The upper-level troughing will finally move out, and bring in ridging and a deep westerly flow. Deep westerly flow in the presence of a ridge is often some of our warmest setups, as winds flowing from an already warm source are able to downslope as they head towards our area, leading to further warming. Plus, westerly winds can somewhat mitigate sea-breezes.

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Today’s NAM model valid for Memorial Day shows widespread 80s for the entire region, even down by the shore (PSU E-Wall).

Sunday should generally expect sunny conditions with highs around 80 or in the low 80s, with light westerly winds. There is the slight risk of an afternoon shower, but nothing like what we saw yesterday.

Memorial Day should have wall-to-wall sunshine with temperatures in the mid and perhaps even upper 80s in some locations, with westerly winds as well.

Tuesday has the potential to be the warmest of all three days, but there may be a backdoor front approaching. We will most likely remain on the warm side of the front, but an increase in clouds could keep things a tad cooler. Regardless, Tuesday could still hit 80 degrees, and if the clouds hold off, mid to upper 80s are possible once again. The chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm exists as the front approaches. This will cool things off a tad once we hit Wednesday.

Along the shore, there will be a bit of a sea breeze developing due to daytime heating, but the westerly winds will act to fight it off somewhat. Thus, temperatures may be a few degrees cooler at times, but generally it will not feel much cooler than inland areas.

EF3 Tornado Confirmed in Duanesburg, NY on Thursday: This town is located about 10 miles northwest of Albany, NY, and a damage survey taken by the National Weather Service indicated EF3 damage, as a house was nearly completely destroyed. More information from the survey can be found here.

In case you are wondering how rare of an event this is, we took a look at data from the National Climatic Data Center, and it showed that in the 20-year period from 1991-2010, there is an annual average of 0.2 EF3 – EF5 tornadoes in New York. This means that a tornado of this strength occurred about once every five years in that period. In other words, although Thursday’s event was certainly an anomalous weather event, and quite impressive to say the least, it has fit the bill of climatology in the past twenty five years.