Posts

John Homenuk

Mid-AM All Zones: Multiple wintry events in New England

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An active pattern, which has existed across the Eastern United States for the better part of the past 3 months, will kick into even higher gear later this week into the early part of next week, as multiple disturbances drive southeastwards from Canada into New England. These disturbances in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will aid in the development of surface low pressure systems, first moving through Southeast Canada and then redeveloping off the coast of New England.

Exactly where and when these surface low pressure systems develop will be the critical component to wintry weather potential in Southern New England — including parts of Central and Northern Connecticut from Friday Night into Saturday morning and again from Sunday Night into Monday morning.

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John Homenuk

Midweek winter storm expected across interior New England

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A fast moving, active weather pattern will continue over the next several days throughout the Northeast US. In the midst of a winter that has been best described as “consistently inconsistent”, another winter storm will evolve in the interior, bookended by warmer than normal temperatures. Low pressure moving from the Mississippi Valley into the Eastern Great Lakes is likely to be the initial impetus for precipitation moving into the Northeast US by Tuesday.

Much of this precipitation will be driven by a  process known as “Warm air advection” — in other words, the movement of warm air through multiple levels of the atmosphere. Lift for precipitation will move into the Northeast as the afternoon goes on, and the middle layers of the atmosphere will gradually warm from southwest to northeast. This will be suffice to change most areas over to rain in the Mid Atlantic States.

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John Homenuk

Winter storm increasing likely in interior New England late week

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Discussed at length yesterday was the potential for a notable winter weather event this weekend in New England, particularly interior locations, with the development of an impressive low pressure area in the Gulf of Maine. Forecast models over the past 12-24 hours have trended favorably for the development of this low pressure area, with a shrinking envelope of potential solutions on the table.

The most notable change has been a trend away from a progressive mid level atmospheric solution, which many forecast models had agreed was going to occur just a few days ago. Synoptically, this type of solution made sense — but a change in the pattern across the Pacific Ocean will lead to more amplification potential downstream over the United States. A more amplified disturbance driving into New England has led to the slower, stronger trends on forecast model guidance.

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John Homenuk

Late week winter storm possible in interior New England

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Amid a changing hemispheric pattern and active jet stream pattern, forecast models have begun to hone in on the potential for a late-week winter storm across New England, particularly interior locations. Despite the presence of a warm antecedent airmass and a relatively progressive-natured pattern (both of which will be discussed as mitigating factors below), the potential does exist for a winter storm that would impact interior locations of New England as an energetic disturbance drives southeastwards into the Northeast US late week.

Forecast models have responded to the development and energy of this disturbance as a reaction to a storm system in East Asia — yes , East Asia. We speak often about how weather patterns in the Pacific Ocean affect our area as well, and this time is no different. A deep storm in East Asia has built ridging into Alaska, which has shunted this disturbance southeast more quickly and with more energy.

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