November 2013 Archives - Page 3 of 3 - New York Metro Weather

Warm weekend, severe weather to our west

November 16, 2013/1 Comment/by John Homenuk

Warmer weather settled into the area this morning behind a warm front, which moved northward as a result of a strong system over the Central United States. The warm weather comes on the heels of some of the coldest weather so far this season, which swept through the Northeast on Tuesday. The snow and cold seems like an afterthought at this point, with temperatures well into the 60’s and plenty of sun. But a progressive pattern in the mid and upper level of the atmosphere means the changes will continue.

For the remainder of Saturday, the main idea will be pleasant and dry. Temperatures will undoubtedly cool down with sunset (which is starting to come at an even earlier hour as we approach later November). But southwest winds, which will become increasingly apparent ahead of a cold front on Sunday, will keep the air much warmer than it has been over the past several nights. Lows will only fall into the 50’s in urban areas — and we’ll dodge a few scattered showers as well.

NAM model showing a significant mid and upper level disturbance moving through the Central US on Sunday.

Weekend warmup will feature unsettled weather

November 15, 2013/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Much has been made of the cold and snowy weather this week, and rightfully so. Temperatures fell into the teens and 20’s on Wednesday night after snow on Tuesday, and high temperatures Wednesday afternoon barely scraped into the upper 30’s. Those temperatures are more typical for overnight lows this time of year. But there is another story line in the weather pattern, and it is one that will certainly keep appearing until there is a large scale change: the pattern is progressive. In the mid and upper levels, the pattern shows no signs of slowing down, meaning any airmass that settles into the area (no matter how anomalous) won’t meander around for long.

Not surprisingly, the very cold air which moved through the area early this week is well out of the picture. Temperatures will warm into the upper 50’s on Friday and the warming trend will continue through the weekend. Along with the warmup, unfortunately, will come some unsettled weather. As a mid level ridge builds over the Central and Eastern US, multiple disturbances will ride eastward through the Mid Atlantic states. The result, in terms of sensible weather, will be increased potential for clouds and showers on both Saturday and Sunday — but not a washout.

NAM model showing multiple disturbances moving into the Mid Atlantic states this weekend. Image courtesy weatherbell.

PM Update: Cold, but warming by late week

November 13, 2013/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

The coldest night (and day) of the year occurred on Wednesday, as low temperatures dipped into the teens and 20s overnight. Daytime highs struggled out of the mid to upper 30’s on Wednesday afternoon, more typical for low temperatures this time of year. The much below normal temperatures come as a result of an arctic airmass, which swung through the region over the past day or two and will continue to swing eastward by Thursday. New York City’s temperature fell below 30 F, the earliest date it has done so since November 10 2004.

The progressive nature of the mid and upper level patterns over the last few weeks means one thing — airmasses are not going to settle into the area. Not surprisingly, warming is expected by later this week — we could even reach into the 60’s this weekend.

Cold start, slowly warming this week

November 4, 2013/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

The growing season ended early Monday morning throughout much of the interior, down to the immediate suburbs of Western Union and Essex counties. The winds kept radiational cooling from performing too well, however, and much of the 5 Boros of NYC remained above freezing — so the growing season will technically continue there until the next freeze. Although it may seem very brisk today (temperatures will struggle into the 50’s Monday afternoon), the cold air will be rather brief. Temperatures are expected to slowly warm this week, with highs reaching into the 60’s by later this week ahead of a cold front. The roller coaster of temperatures has been a trend of late, with a similar event occurring last week ahead of a front and storm system.

HRRR model showing dew points in the teens throughout the area on Monday afternoon. Courtesy Weatherbell.

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