Happy Friday! Today will see a mixture of sunshine and clouds. A warm front and shortwave is currently producing some light wintry mix over Interior NY and PA. But much drier-air in low-level could cause this precipitation to diminish as moves southeast. Low and mid-level temperatures have also warmed enough to support mainly rain by time reaches coastal sections. High temperatures will be mid-upper 40s to near 50.
Four months have gone by since we first began tracking the potential for snow and cold in November. The best atmospheric weather pattern for significant snow chose not to arrive until the middle part of March. Yet, here we are, tracking the potential for a tremendous storm system to impact the Northeast United States early next week. Forecast models have begun to hone in on the development of a strong low pressure system off the coast, with tons of moisture and cold air available.
A few weeks ago, our forecasters were tipped off to this potential by the development of high latitude blocking. This is a critical component to any forecast, especially for cold and snow, and especially in the Northeast United States. See, these high latitude blocks are extremely disruptive to the atmospheric flow. Essentially, ridges of high pressure develop way up in the polar and arctic regions and “Block” the progression of systems through the region. They also dislodge cold air, which normally would be bottled up in the higher latitudes, further south into Canada and sometimes New England.
A few weeks ago we discussed the likelihood that winter would return in the early to middle part of the month of March. Well, here we are! High latitude blocking developed several days ago and is continuing to strengthen this week, moving westward from Greenland into Canada. This blocking is dislodging cold air, which otherwise would be bottled up in the Arctic region, further south.
As this occurs, a very notable temperature gradient will develop from the eastern Ohio Valley into the Northeast states. Forecast models agree that a disturbance in the atmosphere’s mid levels will shift through the aforementioned area from late Thursday Night into Friday, with a low pressure system developing along the thermal gradient and moving from the Mid Atlantic states off the coast to a position south of Long Island.
Behind a round of thunderstorms which produced frequent lightning, heavy rain and even some small hail, drier air worked into the area earlier this morning. As it did so, rain continued to fall from remaining updrafts and downdrafts associated with thunderstorms that were weakening over the area. The result, as the sun began to shine, were beautiful rainbows which stretched across the sky in New Jersey and New York City.
Readers on our website, Facebook, Twitter and other social media outlets took to posting their pictures of the rainbows (in some cases, double rainbows) as they stretched across the sky. If you have any pictures of your own, share them with us in the comments section below!