Posts

Miguel Pierre

3/28 All Zones AM Update: Showers & Isolated T-Storms Today, Another Storm System Friday

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Happy Tuesday! More unsettled, dreary weather is in store for today. Low pressure will be tracking from the Ohio Valley this morning to just south of Long Island. This will keep a frontal boundary front further south and most of the region underneath a marine airmass with temperatures only in the 40s or 50s with onshore winds and cloudy skies for most of the day. Temperatures might sneak up into 60s over Southern NJ or Southeast PA with the frontal boundary nudging northward as a warm front, later this afternoon.

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John Homenuk

How long will Winter’s hiatus last? Look to the Pacific

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Before the warmth has even arrived, signals of a changing weather pattern have begun once again. This is, honestly, par for the course in the hemispheric pattern that we have been locked into over the past several months. The progressive nature of the pattern itself has not allowed any particular regime to become stagnant. In other words, the pattern is changing quite consistently, and no overly cold or overly warm regime has become established locally.

While this idea fits within our overall winter forecast, there is something to be said for emerging signals of a return to a colder, more active pattern before a warmer pattern has already begun. Lets not get confused, though — the warmer than normal pattern is still on the way. In fact, temperatures are likely to average above seasonal normals in the Northeast US for quite some time from late this week through Christmas and into the first week of January.

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Miguel Pierre

Monday Musings: Progressive Pattern For This Week

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Despite another cooler airmass over the region today, the pattern overall will be progressive this week, with a number of upper-level disturbances and frontal boundaries moving through Northeast. For today, high pressure will be in control with plenty of sunshine. After some cold temperatures early this morning, temperatures will rise into the middle 50s over much the region this afternoon. Winds will be out north and lighter than over the past few days. So it will feel a little more pleasant today.

Mostly clear skies and calmer winds tonight will allow for temperatures late tonight and early tomorrow fall again into the 20s and lower 30s over interior locations, as well as over the Pine Barrens. Mid-upper 30s to lower 40s closer to NYC and urban areas. More sunshine is store for Tuesday with high pressure in control. But it will milder tomorrow afternoon, with more mid-level ridging and west-southwest winds,  helping temperatures warm into the lower to middle 60s. Some other highlights for this week:

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John Homenuk

Multiple winter weather threats to begin February

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On the heels of two (arguably three) major winter weather events in the Northeast United States, many are wondering just when the pattern will slow down. The answer: Not soon. Medium and long range forecast models are in good agreement that  an active pattern will continue in the foreseeable future as the Pacific Jet continues to send multiple disturbances into the United States. Fluctuating amplitude of both a ridge on the West Coast and high latitude blocking over the Arctic regions will keep things from getting downright snowy and cold for a prolonged period, but the potential for winter weather events for at least the first few weeks of February looks to be heightened.

The first threat will come as early as the tail end of this week — small, but nonetheless noteworthy as it comes on the heels of an arctic front. Short term forecast models are in agreement that a wave of low pressure will develop along this frontal boundary on Thursday, with moisture streaming north/northeastward along it. The best support for heavy precipitation will remain well offshore. But enough moisture looks to stream along the front within a coupled jet structure aloft to allow for steady precipitation to push eastward from Pennsylvania through New England and the Northern Mid Atlantic.

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