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John Homenuk

Monday Briefing: Severe storms, flooding likely tonight

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After several days of heat, the weather pattern is finally ready for a change. That will culminate this afternoon and evening, when strong and severe storms develop throughout the area. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms through tonight.

These storms will be capable of producing frequent and dangerous lightning, torrential flooding rains, gusty winds and hail. Widespread flooding is likely, with tons of moisture in the atmosphere and a frontal boundary nearby.

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John Homenuk

Slight Risk for severe storms today, gusty winds possible

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Showers and thunderstorms are likely to form in the Northeast later this afternoon, as a low pressure system moves through Southeast Canada and parts of Northern New England. Several of the storm could be strong or severe, with the potential for torrential rain, gusty winds, and dangerous lightning. While the threat for severe storms appears focused over Pennsylvania and interior New York State, some strong and severe storms may also leak towards the Lower Hudson Valley and NYC Metro later today.

The Storm Prediction Center has accordingly placed much of the aforementioned area in a “Slight Risk” for severe thunderstorms later today, including parts of Central and Northern Pennsylvania, Northern New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley and the western fringes of the NYC Metro.

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John Homenuk

NYC Area Forecast: Strong storms possible later today

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In what seems to be becoming a bi-weekly occurrence, strong thunderstorms are again possible throughout the Northeast later today. In all seriousness, another frontal boundary approaches this part of the country today – the second this week to do so with some vigor. The airmass ahead of it is once again expected to be humid and unstable, and the lift associated with a pre-frontal disturbance will be significant enough to aid in thunderstorm development later today. SPC has placed parts of the Northeast in a Slight Risk for severe storms later today and tonight. 

As is often the case with thunderstorm events, the devil is in the details – and the details are uncertain. The latest observations this morning suggest that forecast models were a bit over-aggressive with their depiction of morning showers and thunderstorms across the Northeast. This is both good and bad news; it means a drier and more pleasant morning, but it allows the atmosphere to become more unstable later today.

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John Homenuk

Severe thunderstorms likely in the Northeast on Tuesday

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Good evening! After beautiful second half of the day in the Northeast states on Monday, the atmosphere has already begun to become more unstable as southwesterly winds begin to usher in a warmer and more unstable airmass. Forecast models are in good agreement that on Tuesday, a shortwave disturbance traversing the Northeast states will interact with an unstable airmass and trigger the development of severe thunderstorms. These storms will have the potential to become severe, and given the wind shear in place the threat for strong winds could be widespread.

Below, we have detailed the threat in a Severe Weather Briefing, which includes our own forecast maps and ideas as well as expected risks, timing, and preparation steps. We remind you that official forecasts for severe thunderstorms come from the Storm Prediction Center. Check out our briefing below for the very latest information on the threat for severe weather on Tuesday.

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