Posts

John Homenuk

Multiple rounds of strong storms possible this weekend

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A well advertised weather pattern, featuring a large ridge over the Central United States and building heat in the Northeast US, will come to fruition this week. Temperatures will increase fairly dramatically as the end of the week and weekend approaches, with high temperatures reaching into the middle to upper 90s from Friday through Sunday. In addition to the discussed heat has been a well advertised threat for strong and severe thunderstorms.

Along the top of the mentioned ridge will come several atmospheric disturbances, riding along the ridges periphery as the jet stream is shoved to the north with the ridges development. The positioning of the ridge over the Central US suggests these disturbances will slide from Southern Canada, through the Great Lakes, and into the Northeast states late this week and weekend.

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John Homenuk

Heat wave, severe storms highlight upcoming weekend

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Stock up on the sunscreen.

Forecast models are in good agreement that a large, anomalous ridge over the Central United States will build eastward toward the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states during the middle to latter part of this week. As it does so, very warm temperatures in the mid and low levels of the atmosphere will surge toward the area, and high temperatures at the surface will climb fairly rapidly as the weekend approaches — a heat wave.

By the weekend itself, high temperatures may approach or exceed 100 degrees in many locations, with a piece of the core of the aforementioned ridge settling overhead. West winds — even with a northwesterly component at times — will help to suppress any seabreeze or ocean influence, and keep the air extremely hot, and even dry for a day or two.

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John Homenuk

Bouts of heat, multiple MCS threats to end July

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The hot weather is here — and as we have mentioned in our posts for the past week or so, it isn’t expected to go anywhere any time soon. While the pattern will remain somewhat transitional this weekend, a tremendous mid level ridge is forecast to build across the Central United States by the middle part of this upcoming week. This ridge will become the dominant feature in the jet stream and weather pattern throughout the Contiguous United States during this time frame.

The core of the ridge, and the center of the big-time heat, is likely to stay well to our west. The ridge center is expected to drift from the Mississippi River Valley westward toward the Plains states during the week ahead. However, the breadth of the ridge is likely to grow during this time frame, with rising mid level heights extending all the way to the Northeast United States.

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John Homenuk

Building ridge will bring heat, severe wx chances through July

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Within a pattern which has been well discussed for a week or more, changes are afoot during the middle to latter part of this week. The troughing and cooler air, which had become a mainstay over the Northeast US over the past several weeks, will be replaced by increased atmospheric ridging. Warmer air and heat, with temperatures over 90 F, is expected to push into the area by the middle part of this week, and last through the weekend.

This airmass will be marked by mid level temperatures warming up quite dramatically. Temperatures at the 850mb level, or 5000 feet above the ground, will warm to 20 C or above – often times the “demarcation line” for a heatwave in this part of the country. On both Wednesday and Thursday, 850mb temperatures will approach or exceed this 20 C threshold over parts of the area, and not surprisingly forecast models have indicated temperatures in the mid 90’s on both days.

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