Posts

John Homenuk

Major rains possible through Tuesday, may impact fireworks

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A well advertised frontal boundary, and associated low pressure system, are forecast to move toward the area from Monday Night into Tuesday — and it may impact fireworks displays. While forecast models have fluctuated a bit with the exact placement of the storm system, the overall signal for heavy rainfall potential has been quite strong. Over the past 24 hours, models have come into further focus in regards to the eventual evolution of the storm system in our area.

A large plume of moisture will move northward through the Southeast States, eventually meeting up with a very pronounced frontal boundary and temperature/pressure gradient from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic states. Meanwhile, a disturbance moving along this gradient will provide ample lift for precipitation to develop. The juxtaposition of these features will lead to steady rainfall, spreading from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic on Monday.

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John Homenuk

NWS confirms microburst in Union County on Tuesday

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The National Weather Service in Upton, NY has confirmed that straight-line wind damage, originating from a microburst, was the cause of significant but localized damage in Union County, NJ on Tuesday Night. A severe thunderstorm moving through the Watchung Mountains and into Union and Essex counties showed signs of rotation and strong winds on terminal doppler radar, but no evidence of a tornado has been found as of yet.

The line of showers and thunderstorms formed over parts of New Jersey on Tuesday evening in association with a frontal boundary, which was approaching the area from the west. A localized area of favorable instability and wind shear allowed the storms to briefly strengthen, despite the overall weakening trend which was being observed as storms were approaching the more stable air near the coastal plain.

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John Homenuk

Premium: More heat, storm chances on the horizon

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The atmospheric pattern so far, for the majority of Spring and now into the first week or two of calendar summer, has been a bit of an enigma. There have been transient bouts of warmth, with showers and thunderstorms, but cooler periods have followed. For the most part, our area has avoided widespread or organized severe weather events as well. Over the next few weeks, that pattern looks to slowly undergo some changes.

While these changes aren’t expected to be sudden or dramatic, the gradual transition will certainly have an impact on the weather that our local area experiences. In todays premium post, we break down what is driving the changes to the pattern, how we anticipate it will evolve, and what the effects on our sensible weather will be — including temperatures, precipitation, and hazardous weather opportunities.

Since the Spring, the pattern has been dominated by a recurring theme of troughiness in Southeast Canada. While ridging has become established over the Central United States, at times, higher latitude blocking — and, often times, an amplified northern jet stream — has allowed for troughs in Southeast Canada to impede the northward extension of that ridging.

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John Homenuk

Strong storms possible Saturday, but uncertainty remains high

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A complex atmospheric pattern is expected to unfold on Saturday, and the evolution may lead to the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in the Northeast states. As a mid level ridge builds toward the area from Friday Night into Saturday, a disturbance associated with a thunderstorm complex in the Northern Midwest states will ride over the top of this ridge, eventually diving southeast from Southeast Canada into the Northeast on Saturday. But, as you can imagine, forecast models are struggling with the exact details of its movement through the area.

Convection, inherently, is difficult to forecast. Models are likely to struggle with this disturbance as thunderstorms develop today over the Northern Midwest and head toward parts of the Great Lakes. More importantly, this disturbance will move northeastward into Southeast Canada, along the periphery of a mid level ridge, and then dive southeastward into our area later Saturday — and the timing of its approach becomes critical to the forecast.

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