Posts

Miguel Pierre

2/21 AM All Zones: Record Warmth Possible Thursday, Stormy Saturday?

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Temperatures today will again be several degrees above normal for this of year. But some mid-high level clouds increasing out ahead of warm front approaching will likely keep highs a little lower then yesterday, in upper 40s to lower 50s.

Mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight, as the warm front and shortwave trough move through. Lift and moisture become more limited as they run into the upper-level ridging. But a few scattered light rain showers are still possible, especially northwest of NYC. Temperatures will likely only drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s tonight.

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John Homenuk

PM Update: Pleasant evening, hot and stormy Thursday

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Wednesday turned out to be one of the more beautiful days in the past several weeks. A transitional day, between disturbance, meant highs climbing into the lower 80’s with an abundance of sunshine. But more importantly, lower humidity and a lack of lift and atmospheric instability meant no thunderstorms or rain. Fair weather clouds were the only thing passing by — and the weather was extremely comfortable, even if the sun was a bit hot.

Wednesday evening, temperatures will remain comfortable and winds will continue westerly. This is important, as it negates any marine air or onshore flow (which kept us cool last week). To our north and west, a frontal system and wind shift boundary will move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast on Thursday. So while Wednesday Night will be pleasant and quiet, this boundary will be important for the coming day on Thursday.

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John Homenuk

Transition weekend, stormy conditions next week

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After strong to severe storms blew through the area on Wednesday evening, Canadian high pressure is back in control on Thursday. Cooler than normal air will slide back into the area over the next few days, with generally pleasant conditions. High temperatures in the 80’s will be more common than the 90’s from earlier in the week, but the lower humidity will make it feel much more comfortable. A transition in the pattern won’t occur until late this weekend into early next week, when unsettled weather will be poised to make a return.

As a mid level disturbance slides eastward through the Great Lakes, actually a part of a larger upper level trough, a warm front will slide northeastward from the Ohio Valley through the Northeast US. This will be the first sign of forthcoming unsettled weather, as increasing temperatures and forcing along the front will aid in the development of storms as early as Sunday morning. Multiple disturbances moving northeastward through the area will provide chances for storms on Sunday — but the main event would come on Monday as a low pressure system shifts through the Northeast US.

GFS model showing disturbances in the mid levels of the atmosphere approaching the area early next week.

GFS model showing disturbances in the mid levels of the atmosphere approaching the area early next week.

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