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John Homenuk

Remnants of TS Bill will impact weekend forecast

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While Tropical Storm Bill is making headlines today impacting parts of Texas, with rains expected in the Plains this week, we aren’t out of the woods here in the Northeast. A Tropical Storm thousands of miles away will eventually become engulfed in the mid and upper level atmospheric flow, bringing tropical moisture northeastward into the Ohio Valley and eventually the Northeast. For our area, this will have a major impact on the weekend forecast.

Forecast models are struggling with the exact intensity of TS Bill as it moves inland, as well as the timing of it’s absorption into the mid and upper level atmospheric flow. These two factors are very important for our areas forecast, as they will dictate the timing of a surge of tropical moisture into the Northeast US. Showers, thunderstorms, and even areas of heavy flooding rains are possible near where the center of the remnant low pressure tracks.

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John Homenuk

Seasons first heatwave, tropical threat this week

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If you weren’t already convinced that summer had arrived, you will be by the end of this upcoming week. A building ridge is expected to set the stage for the seasons first potential heatwave (with temperatures of 90+ for three days or more) during the early to middle part of the week. Additionally, a tropical system may skirt the east coast by the latter half of the week into the holiday weekend. Don’t panic about your holiday plans just yet — models are still all over the place with the exact track of the system — but many of them are bringing it precariously close to the coast at this juncture.

Our hazardous weather begins, though, with the aforementioned heat wave during the early to mid part of the week. By Tuesday, a building ridge and rising mid level temperatures will help bring surface temperatures well into the 80’s — and likely 90’s — in much of the area. Southerly winds could keep things a bit cooler near the shore, but will pump in the hot air elsewhere. Rising dew points and humidity won’t help. Without a shadow of a doubt, it will feel like mid summer during this week.

NAM model forecasting high temperatures in the 90's on Wednesday.

NAM model forecasting high temperatures in the 90’s on Wednesday.

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