Posts

Miguel Pierre

(Premium) Tropical Storm Hermine Increasingly Likely to Affect our Region

/by

We continue to carefully monitor developments with tropical storm Hermine currently over the Gulf of Mexico. It is forecast to make landfall near around the Florida Big Bend area, as a tropical storm. But it could intensity more — into a Category 1 Hurricane — before making landfall. Therefore, a hurricane watch has also been issued for this region. The main threat will still be heavy rainfall and perhaps some coastal flooding and storm surge along the coast, due to the new moon cycle.

For our region, we watch for at least the remnants of this system to affect our area. Model guidance has been indicating that a northern stream shortwave will break off the upper-level trough that will passing through the Northeast tonight and tomorrow. This will trail the that trough and create a new, powerful shortwave trough in the Ohio Valley — similar to what we sometimes see during our strongest snowstorms. Then this shortwave trough and energy will amplify the downstream pattern, and thus interact with the shortwave energy from Tropical Storm Hermine, as it moves up somewhere near the Georgia and Carolina coasts on Friday.

Read more

John Homenuk

Afternoon Roundup: Ridiculously pleasant weather

/by

While the eyes of many have been focused on Tropical Storm Erika (and rightfully so), the weather in our local area has taken a turn for the better over the last 24 hours. Behind a cold front which moved through the area earlier this week, the airmass has undergone a dramatic change. The departing moisture and humidity has given way to comfortable air, plenty of sun, and a lovely breeze. High temperatures are still reaching into the lower 80’s, keeping things pleasantly warm as well. The trend will continue through the next few days as high pressure remains firmly in control.

Read more

John Homenuk

T.S Erika, and her future over the next week

/by

It is always interesting, this time of year, when a Tropical Storm or Hurricane forms to the east of the Lesser Antilles. While, obviously, no two meteorological patterns are exactly the same, tropical systems that form in this general area seem to have a tendency to catch the attention of those on the United States East Coast and Gulf Shores. It’s no surprise, really, given the history of such storms making landfall somewhere within the United States. An equal amount of systems, still, recurve “harmlessly” out into the open Atlantic Ocean or, in the case of Hurricane Danny just days ago, succumb to shear and unfavorable atmospheric conditions and die.

Tropical Storm Erika (with a “K”) formed last night in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean, with maximum sustained winds of around 45 miles per hour. Erika is expected to continue on a generally northwest heading over the next few days, gradually strengthening as she heads toward the Bahamas. Intermittently poor atmospheric conditions (albeit, no prolonged periods of strong shear) should keep the strengthening “Gradual” without any rapid intensification.

Read more

John Homenuk

PM Update: Increasing clouds, unsettled weather returns

/by

So, we lucked out on Wednesday. A very weak mid level ridge and transition between disturbances allowed for pleasant conditions and high pressure. Temperatures fell several degrees from the past few days, but more notably, so did the humidity. Highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s were commonplace throughout the area Wednesday afternoon. Partly cloudy skies brought pleasant conditions as well, with a light breeze. It was, by all means, a winner of a day.

The same won’t be true for Thursday. Beginning tonight, high clouds will stream in as a disturbance approaches from the Ohio Valley. Moisture will return to the air and showers will be possible as early as overnight Wednesday. With the increased moisture, showers, and clouds, will come high temperatures only int he 70’s on Thursday. No severe weather threat is anticipated, with cooler more stable air in place throughout the area.

Read more