Posts

Damp Tuesday, but big warmup en route

/0 Comments/by

Warm fronts can be pretty deceiving. Depending on the positioning of the front at the surface, and the amount of warm air that looms behind the front, conditions can seem fairly raw and damp near and ahead it. Much of the same is true in our area today, as east winds ahead of a surface warm front to our south along with a weak low pressure system riding along the front itself will provide cooler conditions and periods of rain.

Waiting behind the front, which will pass the area early Wednesday, is a surge of warm air. Temperatures at the 850mb level will rise from around 8-9 C Tuesday morning, to 15-16 C by Wednesday — and even warmer on Thursday. At the surface, highs in the 60’s on Tuesday with clouds will rapidly rise into the upper 80’s and lower 90’s later this week. In addition, a westerly wind component should help the warmth get all the way to the coast — and limit the inland extent of the seabreeze.

Showers and storms, however, will linger through Wednesday before the heat arrives. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center suggests a small chance (5-15%) of a severe thunderstorm in the area as the warm front passes on Wednesday. Stay tuned for further updates. Their probabilistic outlook, shown below, suggests the best chance for severe thunderstorms will be farther north — where the warm front will be Wednesday afternoon. A slight chance of storms capable of producing gusty winds exists as far south as New Jersey.

Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook, valid for May 29th, 2013. The probability of any severe weather within 25 miles of a point is shown. A 15% probability (yellow) triggers a "Slight Risk" of severe weather.

Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook, valid for May 29th, 2013. The probability of any severe weather within 25 miles of a point is shown. A 15% probability (yellow) triggers a “Slight Risk” of severe weather.

Stay tuned for further updates on not only the potential for storms, but the impending warmup and warm frontal passage on Wednesday. You can follow our social media accounts on Facebook and Twitter for more frequent updates and posts throughout each day.

John Homenuk

Forecast: Monday the start of a long awaited warmup

/0 Comments/by

Partly cloudy skies are expected early Monday, behind a disturbance in the mid levels in the atmosphere which will move through the area overnight and early Monday morning. Rising heights aloft by afternoon, however, will allow for clearing and mostly sunny skies during the day. Temperatures will rise by afternoon, into the 60’s and lower 70’s especially across Central and Northeast New Jersey as well as New York City. After several days of below normal temperatures to begin spring, the warm air will feel all the more pleasant.

At noon time on Monday, temperatures generally should be from the upper 60’s to low 70’s across New Jersey — and in the 60’s along the coastline with slightly cooler temperatures across Eastern Long Island and the NJ Coast.

A seabreeze is expected to develop by late afternoon, however, owing to developing southeast winds. The wind direction will usher in a marine layer off the cool ocean waters which will serve to cool temperatures down by afternoon across Long Island and New Jersey Shore. By late afternoon, the seabreeze should make some westward progress towards New York City and Northeast New Jersey as well. Some clouds and drizzle are expected Monday evening, with the potential for showers and even a rumble of thunder into Tuesday morning. The showers will form thanks to a weak low pressure system which will be riding along an approaching warm front. This warm front is important — it passes our area by Tuesday and will bring the potential for even warmer temperatures (near 80!) across parts of the area Tuesday afternoon.

Forecast high temperatures through mid-week. Graphic created Sunday April 7th at 10:50pm.

Forecast high temperatures through mid-week. Graphic created Sunday April 7th at 10:50pm.

The forecast becomes a bit more complicated from the middle of the week into the tail end of the week, with model guidance struggling to pinpoint the location of a warm front. The positioning of the front will have drastic implications on our weather — just a few miles could make a 10 to 20 degree temperature difference! For now, it appears most models are in good agreement that the warm front will clear our area to the north. For more details and technical reasoning and thoughts behind the forecast this week, check out our Forecast Discussion.

Monday: Partly cloudy early, then becoming mostly sunny. High in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. A bit cooler near the coast. Winds west, shifting to southeast around 10 miles per hour by evening.

Monday Night: Becoming cooler and mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy early, then becoming mostly sunny. Warm. Highs in the upper 70’s to near 80. Warmer across Central New Jersey. Westwinds around 10 miles per hour.