Warm Archives - Page 25 of 27 - New York Metro Weather

Milder air will give way to rain, storm threat

February 20, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

A relentlessly active pattern continues as we make our way into the latter half of February. Despite warmer air moving into the area on Thursday and Friday, a significant storm system in the Central United States will move northeastward towards the Great Lakes and drag a cold front through the area later on Friday. The weather on Thursday, in sensible terms, will be much milder than usual with temperatures both aloft and at the surface increasing and plenty of sun expected. We’ll consider it a bit of a consolation prize for the volatility of the pattern over the last several weeks. High temperatures are expected to reach close to 50 degrees in many locations (although cooler near the shore, as usual for this time of year) which will feel almost balmy compared to what we’ve become accustomed to.

Friday, however, looks to be another active weather day in the area with multiple hazards. First and foremost, the Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of Central and Southern NJ in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. As mentioned above, a cold front will move through the area later on Friday. Increased forcing/lift along this front will act as an impressive trigger for storms — and southerly flow ahead of the front will likely provide adequate instability for at least elevated thunderstorms in those areas. A very impressive mid and low level jet just above our heads provides the potential for strong winds to mix down to the surface in any thunderstorms. Although widespread strong/damaging winds aren’t expected, a few severe gusts seem likely but will remain isolated. The threat drops off farther north where instability is less, although rumbles of thunder and heavy rain are still likely along the front.

Hazards overview for Friday, February 21 2014.

Slow thaw will lead to warm weekend

January 8, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

There is much still to be said and analyzed about the actual impacts of the polar vortex’s pass through our area early this week, but for now – the main story will become its exit and the ensuing warm up. High temperatures on Wednesday have already rebounded several degrees, and less aggressive wind gusts have allowed wind chills to warm up as well. Don’t get us wrong — the airmass remains downright frigid — but the record breaking cold is moving out of the picture. The polar vortex is already retreating well to our north and will continue to do so through Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere will respond, and warm, as the week comes to a close. Forecast models are in good agreement that surface temperatures will, as well. Highs should slowly warm into the 30’s by the end of the week. The pattern, then, will begin to change. The first sign will be a weak storm system which will slingshot towards our area from the Mississippi Valley on Friday, and may provide a period of light snow. Minimal accumulations are expected. But by this weekend, a stronger storm system will be organizing over the Central United States and the southerly flow ahead of it will begin pumping warmer air into our area.

GIF image animation showing rising temperatures at the 850mb level on Wednesday.

Rain, fog continuing through Monday evening

December 23, 2013/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Periods of rain, with continued spotty areas of dense fog, are expected to persist throughout the day on Monday. The culprit? A low pressure system riding northward up the coast along a frontal boundary. With plenty of moisture available, and warmer than normal air sitting along the coast and throughout much of the Mid Atlantic, widespread rain has developed essentially from the Southeast states into the Northeast US this morning. The rain will continue through much of Monday afternoon, with the areas of fog likely not lifting until later today.

Regional radar imagery this morning showed the bands of moderate to heavy rain continuing to stream up the East Coast. With time, however, the frontal boundary will begin to sag eastward and the heavier rain will follow suit. Cooler air is expected to move into the region by later tonight into Tuesday — as the 70 degree weather from Sunday will quickly become a distant memory. By Christmas day, we will be tracking the potential for bands of snow. More details after the break..

Regional radar imagery from Monday morning, showing areas of moderate to heavy rain moving up the East Coast.

Warmup continues, peaks Sunday

December 19, 2013/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Forecast models continue to come into better agreement on the extent of the warmth reaching our area on Sunday, and it seems to be fairly anomalous and will certainly feel dramatically different from what we have experienced over the past several days and weeks. High temperatures are forecast to surge into the 60’s throughout much of the area by late this weekend, as a major storm system drives northward through the Central United States and into the Great Lakes. A warm front will push north of the area during the weekend (providing unsettled weather) but the main story will come after its passage, as southerly winds will bring in very warm air.

The trend towards warmth begins today, as high temperatures will push into the lower 40’s in many locations. For some, especially over the interior, it is the first day above freezing in over a week. But, moreso, Thursday will serve as the first sign of airmass modification, which has not been commonplace in our area recently as arctic intrusions have been relentless. Despite the cold air remaining just to our north over Canada (just because we’re warming up, doesn’t mean it’s depleted) the extent of warm air by this weekend will become quite impressive.

NAM model showing a storm system over the Great Lakes this weekend, with a warm front over New England and very warm air over our area (850mb temperatures 15+ C).

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