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Forecast: Dense fog, warmth before big cold front

Friday Morning Update: Dense fog advisories have been canceled by the National Weather Service (despite the title of our article remaining the same) this morning. Periods of fog are still possible, but won’t be as thick or widespread. Showers are expected to become numerous over the next few hours and rain may become steady to briefly heavy at times. Temperatures will begin to drop throughout the area later this morning in response to an approaching and passing cold front.

The cold front, which will cross on region on Friday, will also bring periods of showers and unsettled weather throughout the day. More importantly, it will mark the end of any semblance of a warm airmass with its passage as temperatures will plummet behind it on Saturday through the second half of the weekend. In fact, rain and showers may end as frozen precipitation on Saturday morning, especially across parts of the interior. Any accumulations are expected to be minimal, but stay tuned for updates as it likely will be a short term/nowcasting type situation.

Surface analysis from late Thursday night into Friday morning showed an approaching cold front, with warm conditions still in place throughout the area.

Surface analysis from late Thursday night into Friday morning showed an approaching cold front, with warm conditions still in place throughout the area.

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Warm weekend, severe weather to our west

Warmer weather settled into the area this morning behind a warm front, which moved northward as a result of a strong system over the Central United States. The warm weather comes on the heels of some of the coldest weather so far this season, which swept through the Northeast on Tuesday. The snow and cold seems like an afterthought at this point, with temperatures well into the 60’s and plenty of sun. But a progressive pattern in the mid and upper level of the atmosphere means the changes will continue.

For the remainder of Saturday, the main idea will be pleasant and dry. Temperatures will undoubtedly cool down with sunset (which is starting to come at an even earlier hour as we approach later November). But southwest winds, which will become increasingly apparent ahead of a cold front on Sunday, will keep the air much warmer than it has been over the past several nights. Lows will only fall into the 50’s in urban areas — and we’ll dodge a few scattered showers as well.

NAM model showing a significant mid and upper level disturbance moving through the Central US on Sunday.

NAM model showing a significant mid and upper level disturbance moving through the Central US on Sunday.

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Forecast: Warmer, strong winds possible Friday

For the first Halloween in three years, the weather hazards in our area will be kept to a minimum. After a damaging snowstorm in 2011, and the recovery from Hurricane Sandy in 2012, today’s weather will feel like a major relief. Additionally, it will feel like the top of a week-long roller coaster of temperatures. Highs today will top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s, but the humidity will make it feel muggier than it has been in several weeks. A few showers are possible across the north and western suburbs later this evening.

Water Vapor Satellite imagery from the morning of 10/31/13, showing moisture streaming towards the area ahead of a storm over the Central US.

Water Vapor Satellite imagery from the morning of 10/31/13, showing moisture streaming towards the area ahead of a storm over the Central US.

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PM Update: Gorgeous autumn weather continues

Ten straight days of dry, pleasant, and sunny weather with low humidity. It has been quite a run, and we aren’t through yet. Stretching even farther back from the last cold front which brought some rain and storms (which seems like months ago at this point), it has been a 3 to 4 week stretch of pleasant weather in our area. Such a stretch is nearly unprecedented — but we have settled into a benign weather pattern. One has to wonder when the pattern ends, how long the unsettled weather that follows will continue.

Regional observations and fronts from the evening of October 2nd, 2013.

Regional observations and fronts from the evening of October 2nd, 2013.

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