Posts

John Homenuk

Major cold front will bring rain, wind and temperature drop

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The warm, sunny weather of the past several days is on the way out. Although our area has experienced several cold fronts over the past few weeks, none have come with quite the vigor which Tuesday’s front will. Northwesterly winds behind the front, a strong mid and upper level system, and a fresh supply (seasonally speaking) of Canadian air will all accompany the frontal boundary. Southerly winds continued this morning ahead of the front, with a broad area of heavy rain lingering just off to our west. The winds are expected to pick up as the afternoon draws on.

Along the frontal zone, an impressive thermal gradient will exist later this afternoon. Forecast models indicate the potential for a 25-30 degree temperature drop during the evening. Widespread heavy rain is expected to be accompanied by embedded thunderstorms, which could drop over 1″ of rain throughout a majority of the area. Making matters worse (or more dramatic, depending on how you look at it) is the potential for strong winds, nested just above the surface, to mix down in this heavier precipitation. Forecast models indicate the potential for wind gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour as the front passes.

A strong cold front will approach the area this afternoon, with a dramatic temperature gradient.

A strong cold front will approach the area this afternoon, with a dramatic temperature gradient.

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John Homenuk

Significant storm will bring rain, wind through Thursday

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If you are a fan of changeable weather, today is for you. A major storm system, developing as a result of a mid level phase, will organize over the Tennessee Valley and shift northeastward to a position near New York City late tonight. The track will mean significant winter weather for our friends in Northern New England (including many of the major ski resorts), but more notably one of the more dramatic swings in sensible weather our area has seen in months. Temperatures will swing from the mid 60s to 70s in some spots this afternoon, all the way down into the 20s by Thursday morning.

Not surprisingly, the significant storm system moving through the Northeast US Wednesday into Thursday will feature a powerful thermal gradient and cold front. Initially, the thermal gradient will develop along a warm front which will stretch from southwest to northeast through the Northeast Wednesday afternoon. Parts of New Jersey could eclipse 70 degrees as southerly winds increase and temperatures increase in the low levels. Forecast models show drizzle and rain eventually increasing in coverage and intensity by Wednesday evening as moisture and lift begin to increase and the frontal boundary approaches Central Pennsylvania.

Regional radar imagery showing precipitation approaching the area (weather tap).

Regional radar imagery showing precipitation approaching the area as of 9:15am (weather tap).

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John Homenuk

Midweek storm trending more wet than white

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It has been a while since we have been able to confidently back off on winter weather potential; in a season which has featured an absolutely tremendous amount of snowfall events and a staggering amount of over-performers. With the upcoming midweek storm, the winter weather potential was fairly clear from the get go. A southern stream disturbance meandering near the Mississippi River, some cold air in place to start, and an energetic northern stream disturbance racing southeastward from Canada to the Great Lakes. The summation of all of these parts usually results in a winter weather event somewhere in the Northeast US, and this situation likely will end no differently. But a delicate evolution of events is likely to produce a warmer situation in our local area.

The evolution of the system begins well to our west, over the Rockies and International Border in the Northern US. As mentioned earlier, a southern stream disturbance will eject from Mexico into the Southern United States (likely providing a fairly significant amount of moisture) while a disturbance from the northern stream slides southeastward to phase with it. At the time of the interaction, a lack of high latitude blocking (over the Northwest Atlantic and Greenland) will allow for height rises over the East Coast, and warmer air intrusion ahead of the developing system. This will be less of a concern over New England, but all models agree that the warm air will likely warm both the mid levels and the surface and help to keep the thermal gradient to our north — meaning more rain than snow in much of the area.

GFS model showing a low pressure system tracking very close to the area on Wednesday afternoon.

GFS model showing a low pressure system tracking very close to the area on Wednesday afternoon.

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John Homenuk

Live Blog: High impact coastal storm through Thursday

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A high impact storm system will affect the area beginning later Wednesday evening, and continuing throughout much of Thursday. Significant amounts of snow, periods of rain and sleet, gusty winds and coastal flooding are all expected hazards. Wednesday night a strong storm system will develop off the Carolina coast, owing to a powerful mid and upper level trough and shortwave. Phasing disturbances aloft will eventually reach the East Coast, which will help shift the coastal system  north and eventually northeastward from the Mid Atlantic to the shores of New England.

With significant impacts expected, we have opened up our live blog for discussion throughout the overnight period beginning at 7:00pm February 12th, 2014. Throughout this time, our meteorologists will check in and continue to update the live blog (and the website products, of course) with information. Even better, the live blog will feature our staff’s thoughts on the event as it is unfolding. This way, you’re never in the dark when it comes to the forecast or the storm which is evolving. Keep it right here tonight and during the storm on Thursday. We have included some handy links to our recently issued products below, followed by the live blog below that. Note: We are using a brand new software, so bear with us if there are any kinks (and let us know, if you can). If we have any significant problems, we will revert to our basic text update system.  (Click read more if you are on the homepage to see the live blog)

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