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Slow thaw will lead to warm weekend

There is much still to be said and analyzed about the actual impacts of the polar vortex’s pass through our area early this week, but for now – the main story will become its exit and the ensuing warm up. High temperatures on Wednesday have already rebounded several degrees, and less aggressive wind gusts have allowed wind chills to warm up as well. Don’t get us wrong — the airmass remains downright frigid — but the record breaking cold is moving out of the picture. The polar vortex is already retreating well to our north and will continue to do so through Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere will respond, and warm, as the week comes to a close. Forecast models are in good agreement that surface temperatures will, as well. Highs should slowly warm into the 30’s by the end of the week. The pattern, then, will begin to change. The first sign will be a weak storm system which will slingshot towards our area from the Mississippi Valley on Friday, and may provide a period of light snow. Minimal accumulations are expected. But by this weekend, a stronger storm system will be organizing over the Central United States and the southerly flow ahead of it will begin pumping warmer air into our area.

GIF image animation showing rising temperatures at the 850mb level on Wednesday.

GIF image animation showing rising temperatures at the 850mb level on Wednesday.

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Forecast: Warmer, strong winds possible Friday

For the first Halloween in three years, the weather hazards in our area will be kept to a minimum. After a damaging snowstorm in 2011, and the recovery from Hurricane Sandy in 2012, today’s weather will feel like a major relief. Additionally, it will feel like the top of a week-long roller coaster of temperatures. Highs today will top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s, but the humidity will make it feel muggier than it has been in several weeks. A few showers are possible across the north and western suburbs later this evening.

Water Vapor Satellite imagery from the morning of 10/31/13, showing moisture streaming towards the area ahead of a storm over the Central US.

Water Vapor Satellite imagery from the morning of 10/31/13, showing moisture streaming towards the area ahead of a storm over the Central US.

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Wind, severe weather possible Monday

With the streak of pleasant weather now officially over, the forecast takes a bit of a turn from unsettled to hazardous on Monday. A warm front moving north through Central NJ late Sunday Night into Monday will bring a more warm and humid airmass, while a cold front swings towards the area from the west. As the warm front pushes north of the area, the atmosphere will become more unstable — and likely supportive of thunderstorms. Favorable shear in the mid and low levels will help storm organization, and a line of thunderstorms is expected to push towards the area later Monday. Strong winds just above the surface may even mix down with daytime heating — making for quite a breezy day even before thunderstorms arrive.

NAM model forecasting a line of showers and thunderstorms moving through the area Monday afternoon and early evening.

NAM model forecasting a line of showers and thunderstorms moving through the area Monday afternoon and early evening.

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