Posts

John Homenuk

Showers and storms with gusty winds, small hail today

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3:00pm Update: Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to approach the area, now in Western New Jersey and shifting eastward. While radar presentation isn’t necessarily eye-grabbing, the winds just above the surface that are mixing down to the surface are impressive.

Philadelphia International Airport recently gusted to 71 miles per hour as thunderstorms passed through. Multiple gusts over 45 miles per hour have been reported in Eastern Pennsylvania. As storms continue to shift eastward toward the axis of more favorable instability and lapse rates, expect these gusts to continue.

None of these storms are currently producing sustained severe-level winds, but we are continuing to monitor the situation. Stay tuned for future updates over the next few hours.

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John Homenuk

Snow, cold, strong winds possible this weekend

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Forecast models have come into much better agreement on the eventual track and intensity of a powerful storm system, which will develop from the Great Lakes off the Northeast Coast on Sunday. The track of the storm is quite unusual, with the surface low tracking from Southeast Canada to a position off the New Jersey Coast and eventually into the Gulf of Maine. A powerhouse mid and upper level low will amplify eastward from the Great Lakes, underneath Long Island, and eventually to a position just south and east of Cape Cod, aiding the strengthen an already powerful storm system.

The result will be the potential for snow from Sunday into Monday, with moderate snowfall accumulations and the potential for higher amounts farther east. But in addition to the snow will come strong, damaging wind potential as the system deepens offshore. Finally, behind the storm, a polar airmass will move southward — possibly the coldest in many years — and the coldest air of the season will sink into the area on Monday when temperatures may struggle to get out of the single digits.

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John Homenuk

Multi-hazard Nor’Easter expected Tuesday

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A significant storm system, characterized by a deepening low pressure with prolific moisture, will move from the Western Atlantic to a position very near New York City on Tuesday. As a result of a mid level atmospheric phase, the storm system will feature intense mid and upper level dynamics. The system is forecast to strengthen with a minimal central pressure near 1012mb today, falling into the mid 990’s mb by Tuesday. With a storm track near our area, and the dynamics involved in the system, multiple weather hazards are anticipated both near our area shores and even inland throughout the interior portions of the area.

Precipitation could begin as early as Monday morning along the coasts of New Jersey and New York as moisture streams inland, owing to an onshore flow. But as the storm system is tugged inland from the Western Atlantic, as a result of the phase in the mid levels of the atmosphere, warm air advection and increased moisture will surge heavier and steadier precipitation toward the coast and eventually into New York City, New Jersey, Southeast New York and Connecticut. Enough low level cold air could hold on across the higher elevations of the interior to allow precipitation to begin as snow, sleet or freezing rain — but this will only be brief as mid level and low level warming transitions precipitation to rain quickly.

The event will create multiple potential hazards throughout our area on Tuesday as the low pressure system tracks nearby. We’ve broken them down here.

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John Homenuk

Rain, wind, and even snow possible this weekend

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An energetic mid and upper level disturbance will shift from Central Canada through the Northeast United States late this week into the early part of this weekend, helping to develop a coastal storm. In addition to the coastal storm will come a strong cold front, and a cold Canadian airmass which will drop temperatures into the 20’s and 30’s at times after its passage. With models hinting at the development of multiple surface lows off the coast, the potential exists for not only rain and wind — but some snow in the higher elevations and the first flakes for others as the storm develops.

But the setup remains extremely complicated. The source region of the disturbance means forecast models are already working with a somewhat limited dataset. And, as is often the case with storms in our area, the mid level disturbances will be involved in fragile interactions, all of which will have a major impact on exactly how the storm develops. Confidence, as a result of these small nuances and features, remains very low. The general idea of a strengthening coastal storm passing along the East Coast, however, is gaining traction quickly.

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