Posts

John Homenuk

1/24 AM All Zones: Coastal storm offshore, rain lingers

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A surface low pressure system, associated with a strong mid and upper level disturbance in the atmosphere, is still off the coast of New Jersey this morning. The storm will linger through early this afternoon as it continues to weaken and shift east/northeast away from the area. Moisture and lift associated with the storm have weakened considerably, but still exist near the area.

Accordingly, bands of rain are continuing to shift into the area, moving east to west from the Atlantic Ocean. These bands will be capable of producing periods of rain throughout the early afternoon hours. In the interior and higher elevations, colder temperatures may allow for periods of sleet or freezing rain which may cause slick roadways.

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John Homenuk

Coastal Zones (2,4,5) Update: Rain, strong winds continue

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A developing low pressure system along the Delmarva coast will strengthen over the next several hours, shifting north and northwestwards. Initially a few hundred miles offshore, the low pressure will develop to a position very close to the coast of New Jersey by later tonight into Tuesday morning. Bands of heavy precipitation will rotate inland from the Atlantic, with torrential rain likely overnight. Rainfall amounts should exceed 2″ over a large area.

The precipitation is being facilitated by a strong low level jet (transport of wind in the low levels of the atmosphere). This low level jet is bringing anomalous moisture and lift with it, leading to heavy precipitation. In addition to the presence of heavy precipitation, the low level jet is also accompanied by strong winds.

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John Homenuk

Public Analysis: Strong Nor’Easter brings a myriad of impacts today

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A well discussed and documented Nor’Easter will develop later today from the Mid Atlantic states to the Delmarva coast, bringing heavy precipitation and a myriad of hazardous weather to the area which will continue through Tuesday. The low pressure area, currently located over the Central Mid Atlantic States, will continue shifting northeast today with precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, shifting northward. This afternoon, the situation becomes more complex as the storm moves off the Delmarva coast and begins strengthening.

This developing offshore low pressure will be quite impressive — and will bring various types of hazardous weather to different geographic locations this afternoon and evening. Wintry weather is possible in the interior and higher elevations, heavy rain is likely area-wide, coastal flooding and strong winds are likely near the coast.

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John Homenuk

Significant storm next week will bring rain, strong winds

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A powerful upper level trough is forecast to develop in the Eastern United States next week, within an amplified upper level height pattern. A strong disturbance is forecast to eject eastwards from the Western United States, and eventually amplify into the Southeast United States during this upcoming weekend. Thereafter, the disturbance will move up the East Coast while slowing down — and allowing a surface low pressure to amplify.

Forecast models have jumped around a bit with the positioning of this surface low pressure, but recently have come into better agreement on the track, taking the surface low inland over the Mid Atlantic states and then off the coast. A considerable amount of modified, warm air exists ahead of the storm system — so the threat with the system is not winter weather. Instead, an anomalously moist atmosphere and very strong jet dynamics are expected to create the potential for torrential rain and very strong winds near the coast.

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