Posts

Miguel Pierre

Rain today, increasingly windy tonight into Tuesday

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After a beautiful, cool Easter weekend, wet weather has returned to begin the week. An upper-level shortwave amplifying west over Great Lakes region will cause a surface area of low pressure to deepen while tracking northeast over Great Lakes. A cold front will move across the local area by early this afternoon. A secondary low pressure area, developing off Delmarva coast this morning, will track northeast well to the south and east of Long Island this afternoon. These systems are combining to bring periods of rain region through early in the day — and contributing to the raw, wet conditions as well.

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Miguel Pierre

Heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, gusty winds possible tonight

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A large deep low, which has been producing some severe weather and tornadoes over parts of Deep South over past few days, will be heading northward into Eastern Ohio Valley today. This storm will send a cold front northward through the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening.

Ahead of this front, positive vorticity advection, strong jet streak forcing and instability will be increasing. A convective or forced squall line is likely to develop over Central Pennsylvania southward into Virgina, with torrential downpours and gusty winds  near the low. Further south there is potential for more severe weather and tornadoes with greater instability. The Storm Prediction Center has issued large area of enhanced and moderate risks for parts of Virgina North Carolina, with slight and marginal risks further up and down the East Coast.

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John Homenuk

Premium: Midweek storm system hazards analysis

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A significant storm system will develop this week, moving from the Southwestern United States into the Central Plains states by midweek. In the Northern Plains, blizzard conditions are expected to develop, with significant snowfall and high winds. Farther south and east, across the Arklatex, Mississippi River Valley, and northward to parts of the Ohio Valley, severe weather is anticipated as the storm system progresses northeastward.

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Miguel Pierre

Rain and wind likely Sunday, winter arrives next week

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High pressure over Eastern Quebec will cause cold air damming over the region tonight, with cold air funneling toward our area. A mid level shortwave and weak warm front are on their way by Saturday morning, however, with the first light round of precipitation ahead of a significant storm system.  As this disturbance approaches our area, some very light snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected across the interior and higher elevations. Temperatures there will be hovering below or near freezing — causing the potential for slick roads.

A deepening storm tracking over the Eastern Great Lakes will send a stronger warm front — and then  a cold front — through the region late Saturday night and Sunday. Lifting will be aided by a strengthening southeasterly low-level jet and precipitable water values between 1.00 to 1.50″.  This will cause periods of rain starting late Saturday night, becoming heavy at times during Sunday morning and early afternoon.  An isolated thunderstorm can’t be ruled with elevated instability.

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