Live Blog: Substantial Snow Likely Thursday
7:45pm: The band that was in PA weakened somewhat, but is still reaching the area. Some light snow is possible over the next hour or so, but it shouldn’t accumulate more than a couple to a few tenths of an inch, at most. Some areas may only see a few flurries. Snow should be over for the whole area by 9:00pm, the latest.
This will be our second to last update; our last post will have some final snow totals across the area. It seems that NYC finished with around 8″ of snow, but we will await the final numbers.
5:50pm: As of 4:00pm, Central Park had 7″ of snow from this storm. Some moderate bands of snow have passed through since then, but snow is lightening up now.
The snow will continue to be light to perhaps very light for the next hour, but we are also watching one more band of snow in Eastern PA, which looks to be moderate to heavy. 700mb frontogenesis is pretty strong with this band, so it certainly has legs to give another 1-2″ for whoever gets in the band. The big question is how far east it moves, so we will be monitoring it.
SPC Mesoanalysis shows strong 700mb frontogenesis with a moderate to heavy snow band in Eastern PA.
2:45pm: As of 1:00pm, Central Park already had 5.5″ of snow, so they are easily over 6″ for this storm. La Guardia had 4″, but they just reported 2″ in the past hour! So they are probably also over 6″ for the storm.
There is a brief lull in the action in some spots as some subsidence has developed behind the banding. However, wave two is starting to strengthen, so snow should be filling back in. There won’t be any more heavy snow, but rather light to moderate snow that still accumulates somewhat efficiently due to a high snow to liquid ratio. Another 2-3″ is expected in most locations before it tapers off around 7:00. Some localized areas, perhaps in parts of Long Island or Central and Southern New Jersey could pick up another 3-4″.
1:30pm: The heavy bands of snow have reached NYC and all of NE NJ, and the band actually strengthened in northern Long Island. Snowfall rates of 1-2″ per hour are occurring, with visibilities below 1/4 of a mile. Stay off the roads if you can!
1:00pm: Whiteout conditions are being reported in NE NJ with the very heavy band of snow that is slowly pressing SE. Near-whiteout conditions can be expected within the next half hour in most of the NYC area, Middlesex County, Union, Staten Island, and parts of Long Island as well.
Radar as of 12:55pm shows a very heavy band of snow pressing down towards NYC. (Courtesy of Accuweather).
12:40pm: Dry air is filtering in on the north side of the system, but this is actually enhancing the banding towards NYC, because of the “squeeze” play it creates and thus more lift. Most of N NJ, NYC, and Long Island are about to have their heaviest snowfall rates of the storm — some spots could get 1-2″/hr rates for an hour or two.
9:30am: After a brief lull in the action in parts of NYC, the snow has become heavier again. This is because the strongest lift from wave one moved north of the area, while wave two was still organizing, so there was a lull in between. But notice how how the radar has really filled in and increased in intensity over the past 10-20 minutes.
Radar imagery as of 9:25am, courtesy of Accuweather.
What’s also important to note is that temperatures are falling quickly. This means that any main roads which were still only slushy will immediately become snow-covered. Temperatures have generally fallen below 30 degrees in most areas, and it was actually 28 in NYC at 9:00am. Any areas who are still above 30 degrees will fall into the upper 20s by 10:00am. This is consistent with the atmospheric profile becoming colder, which favors a finer, fluffier snow as opposed to the heavy wet snow. This snow tends to accumulate very efficiently. 6″+ of snow is likely in the heavier bands.
8:30am: Regional radar shows bands of heavy snow developing from Southeastern PA to Southern Long Island including Central New Jersey. These bands feature heavy snow and greatly reduced visibility. Deteriorating road conditions are occurring. Please travel carefully if you must.
These bands of heavy snow are expected to continue over the same areas over the next few hours — creating localized gradients of snowfall. Newer high resolution models indicate the potential for 4 to 6 inches of snow in many areas, with 6 or more inches in bands of heavier snow.
