John Homenuk

Warm up, then heat wave loom this week

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Forecast models are beginning to come into better agreement on what looks to be a gradual warmup towards above average temperatures to start the new work week, followed by several days of heat with temperatures over 90 degrees in many locations. A large ridge in the mid levels of the atmosphere and high pressure at the surface is to blame, as a south-westerly flow in the atmosphere will advect in some of the warmest air of this years warm season to date. The humidity will be on the rise as well, with models pinning upper 60’s F dew points combined with 90+ F temperatures beginning Wednesday and likely continuing on Thursday and Friday. It remains to be seen exactly how long the heat will last (a typical heat wave around our area lasts around 3 days), before thunderstorms become a threat with any trough or cold front that approaches the heated/unstable atmosphere Regardless, the weather looks to take a summery turn this week. Early-forecast high temperatures for the middle and end of the week (Wednesday) are in the mid 90’s with some warmer readings likely inland and a few cooler readings near the shore.

If you’re looking to head to the beach this week, we’ll have a full forecast out Monday morning. There may be a seabreeze in some locations along the shore during the heat wave – but early indications are that the seabreeze may be strongest on Friday. We’ll keep you posted on the best beach days as the heat draws closer.

John Homenuk

After rain, near average temperatures return

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It has certainly felt a bit cooler lately, especially after an early surge of heat in April and parts of May. You would think, given the past few weeks, that we might be below-average in the temperature department. . But despite a pattern which has featured several days of rain and clouds, the first (almost) half of June 2012 has averaged temperatures near normal. The story of this week will be a similar one, with rain on Tuesday and early Wednesday giving way to near average temperatures the rest of the week and leading into the weekend. A weak trough off the East Coast will prevent a surge of heat which is expected to effect the Midwest and Central United States beginning later this week, but temperatures will still warm up to slightly above normal levels by then. The good news, for our area, will be a general lack of high-precipitation events through the time period. The rain early Wednesday looks like the last-hoorah for the rain until at least the weekend, as high pressure will be sandwiched in between our area with a trough off to both our west and east. We could see clouds back in the forecast, however, by this weekend in response to a backdoor front and some marine/ocean air being pushed inland.

Stay tuned over the next few days for updates on the weather this weekend — including the timing of clouds from the backdoor front and any potential precipitation events down the road.

John Homenuk

Chance of storms continues the next few days

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An upper level low continues to spin over the Northeast US as we reach the middle of the week, and although it is forecast to slowly erode and then

Temperature departure from normal expected on Wednesday morning from the GFS model (Policlimate)

drift eastward over the Northwest Atlantic, the system will continue to bring impacts to the area on both Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop both days, in response to energy in the atmosphere that is meandering around the upper level low pressure system. Such an occurrence is not overly rare, but the system is providing unusually cool temperatures for this time of year. With high temperatures in the low 60’s on both Monday and Tuesday, New York City saw temperature departures from normal of nearly -10 degrees — a stark difference to the theme of the past several months. The showers and thunderstorms which are possible on both Wednesday and Thursday could also add to a building statistic of days with rain — 25 of 36 days featured rain dating back to May 1, 2012. Forecast models continue showing temperature departures of 3 to 5 degrees below normal on Wednesday, with a rebound towards near normal on Thursday. The mornings will be cooler than normal (see the image on the right, valid early Wednesday morning) but the afternoons will warm up towards near-normal as we reach the end of the week.

The cool air will only stick around for so long, though, so don’t be totally fooled by its presence. Forecast models are in good agreement on a return to normal temperatures. In fact, many of them are already hinting at a return of potential heat (90+ F temps) by the middle of next week, and continuing through the middle and end of the month.

John Homenuk

2012 Transit of Venus: Astronomical event of a lifetime

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An incredibly rare astronomical event, known as the Transit of Venus, occurs later this afternoon as Venus passes over the evening sun (at least here

The Transit of Venus across the sun involves the gaseous planet passing between our orbit and that of the suns. The event won't occur again for 105 years. (NRAO)

on the East Coast of the United States). The event last occurred in 2004 and, get this, won’t occur again until 2114. This is, literally, the chance of a lifetime for astronomers and space enthusiasts alike to witness an incredible event. The event occurs as Venus, a gas planet lying between the Earth and the Sun’s orbit, passes directly over the sun. With the right tools, anybody on Earth can observe it as a small black dot, progressing over the suns light. If you plan on viewing the event, however, experts suggest that you wear solar eyeglasses or dark, polarized lenses for safety and better viewing. It will  be nearly impossible to view the event by looking directly at the sun with the naked eye — and you can actually hurt your eyes fairly severely by doing so.

The forecast, however, is less enthusiastic about the once in a lifetime event. Forecast models are indicating the potential for clouds across almost the entire area (70% chance of clouds across some areas, to as low as 40% across others). Such a forecast, more often than not, means the event won’t be viewable. That being said, if you happen to be lucky enough to grab some clear skies and sun this evening, the transit occurs at 6:04pm EST. So get your specialized glasses ready!

Looking to view the event in NYC? Various sources report that astronomy specialists and enthusiast groups have set up viewing sites around New York City, including areas near Riverside Park, Union Square, the High line, and 125 Street in Harlem.  Stay tuned to our Twitter account for more updates throughout the day on the cloud situation.