John Homenuk

Strong/severe storms possible Tuesday evening

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The Storm Prediction Center’s updated outlook has placed the entire NYC Metro Area in a “Slight Risk” for severe thunderstorms through Tuesday

Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for 5/29/12. The categorical risk (left), and the percentage of severe wind gusts within 25 miles of point (right).

evening and into the early hours of Wednesday morning. In addition, the outlook includes a locally enhanced threat (30% chance within 25 miles of a point) of damaging wind gusts and large hail. The threat of storms this afternoon and evening comes in advance of a pre-frontal trough (not the actual surface cold front, but a triggering mechanism ahead of it) which will move through the Northeast US and then off the coast, before the  main surface cold front sweeps through on Wednesday. Some potential mitigating factors to the potential for organized severe weather include the late timing of the pre-frontal trough (may not sweep through the area until early evening, where surface instability will be less)…and somewhat of a lag of supportive shear for more organized storms (the best shear seems to be lagging behind the pre-frontal trough which is triggering the storms today).

Still, the threat does exist for strong to severe storms later this afternoon and evening and our area has been included in the enhanced risk area for these storms to produce strong winds and hail. The Storm Prediction Center may issue severe thunderstorm watches later this afternoon — in which case this post will be updated to reflect the watch in effect. Stay tuned.

John Homenuk

Showers & storms possible through Wednesday

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Summer-like weather settled into the area this Memorial Day weekend, with temperatures soaring above the 90 F mark in several locations on

Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 Outlook showing a "Slight Risk" for severe thunderstorms to our west/northwest over the interior Northeast.

Monday afternoon. A large ridge in the mid levels of the atmosphere was the culprit for the hot weather. Thus far, our area has avoided a widespread threat of showers and thunderstorms, although some areas did receive copious amounts of rain in the isolated storms over the past few days. The coverage of these storms, however, has been low. As Memorial Day weekend becomes a memory, a cold front will approach the area on Tuesday…setting the stage for the entrance of more unsettled weather. Showers and thunderstorms could impact the area by afternoon — but again, the coverage of the event remains in question. Forecast models have been too aggressive in showing thunderstorms so far this weekend, so we’re approaching this event with some caution. But it seems like a good bet that, at the very least, some showers will move through the area as the weak pre-frontal trough sweeps through.

The actual surface cold front won’t move through until early-afternoon on Wednesday (maybe a few hours earlier, depending on the speed of the front) — so we could potentially see scattered showers and storms until then. The Storm Prediction Center placed a good portion of the Northeast US in a Slight Risk for Tuesday — but this does not include the New York City area. The shear usually required for organized severe thunderstorms is once again lacking — supporting the idea that the storms will not pose a threat for organized severe weather. However, it will still be warm ahead of the front on Tuesday. Forecast models are indicative of temperatures approaching the 90 F mark once again in some locations (the mid-upper 80’s for sure) before the showers and storms enter the picture.

Stay tuned for updates on the potential showers and storms, as well as updates on any isolated strong thunderstorm threats..including the relay of watches and warnings from the Storm Prediction Center and local National Weather Service.

John Homenuk

Memorial Day Weekend could offer taste of summer

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The rainy and dreary weather which has plagued the area quite frequently over the past few weeks will continue through the middle of this week, but

GFS Model forecasting a large ridge in the Eastern US on Memorial Day Weekend, ushering in a warm airmass.

it appears that the forecast models are beginning to hint at the potential for a turnaround in temperatures and sensible weather by Memorial Day Weekend. A large trough diving towards the West Coast on some of the major forecast models would help force the development of a large ridge on the East Coast of the United States, ushering in a much warmer airmass — possibly the warmest we’ve seen so far this season. However, the intensity of the heat and the ability for it to reach our remains in question. Forecast models have been fluctuating with the northward reach of the “real” heat (temperatures over 90 F), so we’ll have to keep a close eye on it. That said, we’re definitely looking at the potential for some real summer-like days in the near future!

Along with the potential for heat, will come the potential for thunderstorms. Typically, along the periphery of these big heat-ridge set-ups, thunderstorm systems can form and track for relatively long distances. Often referred to in the meteorological community as the “ring of fire”, these complexes of storms can often provide a strong punch. However, the exact setup (positioning/strength of the ridge) will determine where the thunderstorms track. Some of the forecast models are hinting at impacts in our area — but we’ll watch it carefully!

All in all, the pattern looks to take a bit of a turn towards a more summery feel over the next week for sure. Stay here for all the details as we get closer.

John Homenuk

TS Alberto forms off South Carolina Coast

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The National Hurricane Center officially declared the formation of Tropical Storm Alberto this afternoon, marking the first named system of the 2012 Alberto 5 Day ConeAtlantic Hurricane Season. The storm system is located off the coast of South Carolina, and is expected to move slowly over the next 24 hours before accelerating northeast up the East Coast (but remaining offshore). Maximum sustained winds as of Saturday afternoon were 40 kts (or 45 miles per hour), and Alberto had a minimum central pressure of 1007 millibars. The system was moving southwest at 3 kts (3 miles per hour). The National Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty (right) includes some of the forecast area, including the New Jersey Shore. We aren’t currently expecting the storm system to landfall in our area, but being in the cone of uncertainty generally suggests that interests in that area should keep a very close eye on the forecast over the next few days for any shifts or adjustments.

The expected track of the storm system suggests our forecast area could feel some prolonged impacts from the system. The storm system is not particularly strong, nor is it expected to impact our area directly. However, showers and thunderstorms associated with Alberto are expected to impact the area beginning on Monday. Some periods of heavy rain and gusty winds are certainly possible Monday through Tuesday with the scattered showers/storms. Widespread heavy rain, flooding, or severe weather impacts are not expected.

Stay tuned over the next day or two for constant updates and information on the tropical system and impacts expected in our area.