John Homenuk

Heavy showers and strong storms possible Wednesday

/99 Comments/by

SPC Day 2 Outlook for Wednesday. "15%" chance of severe storms trigger a categorical "Slight Risk".

A moist southerly flow advecting tropical like air into the area has been responsible for a big increase in dew points throughout the area — and a humid airmass in place late Tuesday. This airmass will remain in the area through Wednesday afternoon, when a disturbance will pass to the north of the area. Although the system isn’t overly strong (in fact, it’s pretty far away from the NYC area), just enough energy in the atmosphere will touch off showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening. The combination of an unstable atmosphere, forcing/energy near the front, and adequate wind shear will support the development of showers and thunderstorms some of which could be strong or severe. Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the area in a ‘Slight Risk’ for severe thunderstorms on their Day 2 Outlook Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The wind shear will be more supportive of storm organization to the north of the city, so we agree with the Storm Prediction Center’s visual outlook…which keeps the entire area in a risk for severe thunderstorms, but signals that the most organized potential will be just north of the city into New England. However, interests in the entire area should keep an eye to the sky Wednesday afternoon. The storms will be capable of producing the usual heavy rain, lightning and thunder…along with the potential for some strong wind gusts and some isolated hail. The threat will end later Wednesday evening as the front passes.

Stay tuned for more updates as the event draws closer — and on Wednesday, for watches and warnings should they be needed.

John Homenuk

Beautiful weekend weather will continue

/3 Comments/by

May began as April ended, with a streak of slightly below-normal temperatures and plenty of showers around the area. To be fair, it hasn’t been a total

NAM Model showing high temperatures in the 80's on Sunday

washout. Still, the change in weather from what we were experiencing about a month ago today has been rather dramatic. Temperature departures would run over 10 degrees above normal by the middle of April, and through may we have averaged near normal with some areas slightly below normal. The good news, however, is that the showery weather is on the way out. The cold front which was near the area Tuesday and Wednesday has been swept offshore and to our east — and after a cool and windy day Thursday, temperatures rebounded the first half of the weekend.

Temperatures in the middle to upper 70’s on Saturday will give way to more 80 degree temperatures away from the shore on Sunday. Temperatures could rise into the upper 70’s even near the shore during the early hours of Sunday afternoon. However, a seabreeze by afternoon looks to lower temperatures by early evening near the beaches and the local waters. Inland, temperatures in the 80’s could continue to sunset.  The pattern won’t stay overly warm, though, as a trough is expected to work back into the area by next week. Although it won’t be too strong (rather broad, actually) some showers and a bit of unsettled weather is possible during the week once again. Steady rain may work into the area by late Tuesday into Wednesday. We’ll keep an eye on it!

Remember to keep an eye on our 5 day forecast graphic, hazards table, and forecast briefing by using the navigation table to the left. You can also check out a quick glance at the forecast by glancing to the right at our forecast at a glance widget.

 

 

John Homenuk

Forecast: Unsettled weather on the way

/3 Comments/by

Transitional weather has been the theme over the past few weeks, buckling the trend of the consistent above normal temperatures and below

"NAM" Model's simulated radar for Tuesday Night at 8pm, showing moderate rain throughout the area.

normal precipitation which dominated the areas weather for several weeks prior. Much of the same will continue as we move into the second week of May, as an upper level trough is forecast to move from South-Central Canada towards the Northeast United States. Plenty of moisture streaming into our area from the south will work with the forcing from this trough, beginning around the middle of the upcoming week, to bring the potential for showers. Periods of more moderate rain are possible Wednesday and Thursday, and we could even see some scattered thunderstorms. Typically, with these types of events, the thunderstorms and heavy rain can be hit and miss. So we’ll have to see which areas are able to cash in on some of the heavier precipitation. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a 5% risk for severe thunderstorms (not quite a “Slight Risk” which we saw a few days ago), for the potential of some scattered stronger storms on Tuesday afternoon.

If some of the heavier rain is able to work into the area, it would certainly be a possibility for some locations to see localized flooding. That being said, the ground remains rather dry after such a long period of below-normal precipitation. That should help us to avoid any significant flooding issues, if the heavy rain does come to fruition. To sum things up, it looks like scattered showers will enter the picture beginning Tuesday morning and continuing through Wednesday evening. Make sure to plan for the potential for more moderate/steady rain at times as well…although it certainly isn’t a lock that we have a high-precipitation event on the way. We’ll keep you posted as the week continues.

John Homenuk

“Supermoon” to highlight a quiet weather weekend

/11 Comments/by

A "supermoon" can look especially large when it first rises near the horizon.

With a cold front passing the region late Friday Night through Saturday, high pressure is forecast to build in to the forecast area for the weekend. Although some showers could be around for a brief period on Saturday, the high pressure is expected to remain in control for the majority of both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures, also, will cooperate as the airmass isn’t overly cold behind the front. In fact, high temperatures will still reach into the lower 70’s in many locations on both days. With a light breeze, it will feel quite pleasant. The main highlight of the weekend will come from the sky, but instead of rain or lightning it will come from the moon and a meteor shower. Indeed, an active night sky is expected on the evening of Cinco De Mayo.

Both the Aquarid meteor shower, and a “supermoon” will occur on Saturday night — quite a Cino De Mayo celebration for stargazers and skywatchers alike. A supermoon is a nearly annual occurrence (nearly once a year, but not officially annual) where the moon makes it’s closest approach to earth — and is also full. The moon will be closest at around 11:54pm and will appear up to 30% brighter and 14% bigger than the most dull moon during the calendar year. However, the moon will “appear” biggest when it rises near the horizon (around 8:00pm). Because of “distortion of view” (not fully understood by astronomers), especially if you are near any trees or buildings, the moon will look monstrous in the night sky as it rises above the horizon — in a similar way that the sun can look large when it sets.

But the party doesn’t end there! The debris field of Halley’s comet (also known as the Aquarid meteor shower) will pass near as well — scattering meteors throughout the night sky. The large, full moon is expected to obstruct the otherwise consistently performing meteor shower. Without a bright moon, around 50 meteors per hour are typical from the Aquarids. Expect a bit less this year.

Of course, almost all of our viewing depends on the cloud conditions — and it appears that it will be a close call. Some forecast models are showing an area of low clouds moving from north to south, coincidentally between around 8pm and 12am. If that comes to fruition, the skywatching party would likely be crashed and broken up early. Hopefully, we can maintain clear skies and enjoy a beautiful display from space. We’ll be watching it very closely, so stay tuned for cloud updates throughout the day on Saturday.