John Homenuk

May 2012 Recap: Wetter, but still above normal

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The streak continues: May 2012 was unable to break the streak of over 13 straight months which have finished above normal in the temperature

Temperature departures from normal in the United States during the month of May 2012 (HPRCC)

department in New York City. Such a streak is not unprecedented, but is becoming very impressive with each month that passes. The last month which registered a below normal departure from average was March of 2011, which seems like a distant memory at this point. The more you analyze the statistics, the more impressive they become. Every single month beginning with April 2011 has been above normal in NYC — including the Summer and Autumn of 2011, and Winter and Spring of 2012. May 2012 featured several rainy days, and several days with bel0w-normal departures, but a late-month surge of heat was enough to keep departures above normal. Still, since May 1st 2012, 24 of 35 days have featured rain (measurable precipitation in New York City). To have such a high amount of days with precipitation, but still average temperatures 2 to 4 degrees above normal is pretty remarkable. That being said, the month finished above normal in the temperature department across much of the Central and Eastern United States, stretching from the Northeast through the Great Lakes and Plains into the Desert Southwest. The above-normal departures certainly were not localized to our area.

The May 2012 Stats for NYC (Central Park)…

Temperature departure from normal: +2.7

Highest observed temperature: 89 (5/28, 5/29)

Lowest observed temperature: 49 (5/11)

Total rainfall: 5.38″ (+1.19″ departure from normal)

Frequently occurring unsettled weather (# of days with occurrence): Fog (20), Light Rain (18), Haze (10), Rain (8), Heavy Rain (6)

 

 

John Homenuk

Period of heavy rain likely tonight into Saturday AM

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A dynamic storm system moving through the Northeast US will bring a slew of significant weather effects to the Mid-Atlantic states today. In fact, the

Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook showing a rare moderate risk over the DC Region, and less risk in our area. (Storm Prediction Center)

Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare Moderate Risk (the second in just one week on the East Coast), this time farther to our south over the Mid-Atlantic including the Capital region as well as parts of Maryland and Virginia. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected there, with a heightened potential for tornadoes, some potentially strong. For more information on the severe weather threat there, visit our friends at Capital Weather, the Storm Prediction Center, or the Washington D.C National Weather Service. In our area, the severe weather threat will much less (in fact, it will be quite low).

The culprit in the difference in weather? A warm front, which lies between the Mid-Atlantic and our area. This warm front is allowing for warm and unstable air to surge into the Mid-Atlantic, while keeping our area cooler and more stable. Overnight tonight, this front will move north and a cold front will sweep through, bringing a period of rain (possibly heavy at times) through the area. A rumble of thunder or a gust of strong wind isn’t out of the question, but the severe weather threat is overall expected to be very low.

The good news is that clearing is expected by late-morning on Saturday, giving way to fair weather and temperatures in the 70’s by Saturday afternoon and evening. Some showers and storms could be scattered around on Sunday afternoon, but the weekend certainly doesn’t look like a washout.

John Homenuk

Cooler weather returns mid-week

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The hot and humid conditions which dominated the areas weather on Memorial Day weekend is in the process of being flushed out of the area, as a

Forecast high temperatures on Wednesday are in the upper 70's to low 80's, much cooler than the past several days.

pre-frontal trough and then surface cold front  move through the area by mid-day on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms impacted the area Tuesday evening (albeit weaker than the severe weather which affected much of the interior Northeast), and temperatures dropped from the low 90’s into the low 70’s throughout the area fairly rapidly. The surface front remained to the west, but is expected to cross the area later Wednesday. The large ridge in the atmosphere responsible for the very warm and moist flow of air into the area is no longer in place, and is being replaced with lower heights and an incoming trough.

The result will be cooler weather, and after a chance of some scattered showers/storms on Wednesday, fair weather until Friday. Temperatures in the 70’s to near 80 are expected, but lower humidity levels will make the air feel quite refreshing. However, a low pressure system approaching looks to bring a dreary start to the weekend on Saturday. We’ll keep you updated on the exact timing of the rain as we get closer to the end of the week, but it certainly doesn’t look like the entire weekend will be a washout. For now, enjoy the return to more normal temperatures and fair weather this week.

John Homenuk

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the Tri-State until 10pm

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The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for parts of New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut which is

Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Watch #318 is valid until 10:00pm for the area outlined in blue.

valid through 10:00pm tonight. A line of showers and strong thunderstorms is currently located over Eastern Pennsylvania, and is moving eastward around 30 miles per hour. These storms are progressing into a moderately unstable environment over our area — supportive of the continued potential for heavy rain, lightning, damaging winds, and hail. One potential mitigating factor is the lack of supportive shear for more organized severe storms, but the potential looks to continue regardless…even though it may lessen some as the storms approach the coast and venture away from the supportive shear values.

Threats… The potential exists for damaging winds, large hail, and frequent lightning in these storms. In addition, very heavy rain and torrential downpours are likely as the storms move through the area. The storms will likely begin moving through the area quickly, so keep an eye to the sky at all times through tonight.

Timing… The storms will likely impact New Jersey between the hours of 7-8pm, and begin accelerating eastward, impacting Southeast NY, New York City, Long Island, and Southeast NJ between 8-9pm. Thereafter, the storms may impact Long Island before 10pm when the severe thunderstorm watch expires.