Archive for month: March, 2013

Moderate to heavy snow continued on Friday morning and afternoon throughout much of the area, courtesy of an inverted trough extending over the Northeast US.

Moderate to heavy snow continued throughout much of the forecast area this morning, with heavy bands moving from northeast to southwest in an unusual turn of events as a storm system hundreds of miles of snow produced snow in our area via an inverted trough. The bands of heavy snow produced snowfall totals much higher than anticipated throughout the area, and we are guilty as much as anyone else. Our snowfall forecast called for a maximum snowfall of 3 to 6 inches in the forecast area, in a band from Interior Central New Jersey through Northeast NJ, New York City, and Connecticut. In the end, the coastal storm passed to our southeast bringing little precipitation to New York City. But the inverted trough developed on Thursday Night and it became clear that the system would almost “back” into the area from the northeast. The snow continued overnight and into Friday morning, and remains persistent throughout the area at noon. Forecast models are insistent that over the next few hours, however, the forcing required to produce the moderate to heavy snow will wane, and the bands will weaken and diminish.

As the storm system pulls away, the pressure gradient is expected to produce a stiff breeze to lead us into the weekend. The good news, however, is that the sun will make a much needed appearance by Saturday morning. Warmer temperatures

Estimated snowfall totals through 12pm on Friday throughout the area. Stay tuned for official totals and a reanalysis map.

are expected as well, so if you’re a snow lover…enjoy the snow while you can! The wintry scene won’t last long. The warming trend will continue into Sunday with temperatures rising into the 50’s. Some clouds are expected Sunday Night and Monday, but temperatures will continue to warm with highs into the mid 50’s by Monday afternoon. The next system on our radar for the middle of next week will be a rain provider — but stay tuned for details on timing.

Rest of Today (Friday): Snow likely before 2pm, with an additional inch or so of accumulation possible. Then becoming partly cloudy, with a chance of flurries. High near 40. North winds 20 to 30 miles per hour.

Tonight: Clearing and windy. Low near 32. North winds 15 to 20 miles per hour, gusting to 30 miles per hour.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and warmer with a high near 50. North winds around 10 miles per hour.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with a high near 52. Variable wind becoming southerly around 10 miles per hour.

Monday: Increasing clouds with a high near 56. South winds around 10 miles per hour.

A strong storm system is developing to our south and will slowly track its way northward. There still exists plenty of computer model uncertainty, considering how close we are to the storm, but I’ll break down general expectations as well as I can given the current data.

When will the storm start? Light rain and sprinkles will overspread the region during the late morning, with temperatures in the upper 30s to around 40. However, the precipitation will remain light for several hours after the storm’s start, and temperatures will only drop by a few degrees as we head towards the early and mid afternoon.

When will the storm be at its worst? There are still some models that do not hit the area very hard. However, the team here is for the most part disregarding those models, while also not weighing the strongest model too heavily. The middle ground solution that we favor shows the rain changing over to snow during the mid to late afternoon hours, but not accumulating right away. The heavier, accumulating snow would generally fall between the hours of 8 p.m. and 3 a.m.

What conditions can we generally expect when the storm is at its worst? During the peak of the storm, much of the area should be receiving snowfall rates between 0.5″ and 1.5″ per hour. Also, winds will be quite strong and gusty out of the north and northeast. Winds will be sustained between 20 and 35 miles per hour at times, with gusts ranging from 40-50 miles per hour; though further inland locations may have slightly tamer winds. The shores will experience some storm surge, but considering the strongest winds will be out of the north and northeast, the beaches should be able to avoid a very serious situation. That being said, moderate erosion is still expected.

How much snow will we receive? We are forecasting a general wide swath of 3-6″ for most of the region. There is the potential for more in some spots, especially if the more robust models verify, but the blend we used yields 3-6″ totals. A potential wild card as a “part two” that might occur later on during Thursday and into early Friday morning. Some models are developing another band of snow to our north and attempt to push it towards our region. The uncertainty with this portion is quite high, and our forecast only slightly takes this potential into account.

We are officially in storm mode now, so check back to our page for frequent updates! Stay safe, everyone.