John Homenuk

Dreaming of a White Christmas? Dream On

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It has been a meteorological winter of mud, rain, and warmth.

Two full weeks in to the meteorological winter season, which begins December 1st and ends March 1st, no winter weather of significance has impacted our area. That, in itself, isn’t all that notable. December of 2014 also featured above normal temperatures and very little winter weather. 2015, however, has been much more notable on almost all facets — with record shattering warm temperatures and prolonged above normal temperature departures.

On Saturday and Sunday of this past weekend, daily high temperature records were broken at almost all of the NYC 5-Boro’s weather reporting stations. New York City (Central Park) broke their daily high temperature record on Sunday before the clock even reached 10:30am. Central and Southern New Jersey? Forget it: Temperatures there soared into the lower 70’s, breaking records as well.

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Miguel Pierre

Long Range: Warmth continues, when will the pattern change?

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Meteorological winter began two weeks ago — but winter itself still seems to be on a hiatus. Over the next few weeks, it appears the pattern will continue to be unsupportive of winter weather — and may further support record breaking warmth. Our long range outlook will discuss the meteorological pattern for the upcoming 30 to 45 days. With an in depth look into meteorological patterns and the developing global circulations, we’ll explain the processes occurring that will drive our weather pattern for late this month and January.

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John Homenuk

Record breaking warm temperatures possible this weekend

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With winter still on hiatus, the warm pattern is taking over — and likely taking records with it. A building mid level ridge will be the story this weekend, as a large and energetic storm system digs into the Central United States. Rising mid level heights to the east, over the Ohio Valley and Northeast, will be the first sign of the advection of an anomalously warm airmass. With southerly winds and increasingly warm air in the mid and low levels of the atmosphere, high temperatures will increase each day the end of this week and weekend.

By this weekend, 850mb temperatures (mid to low levels of the atmosphere) will exceed 10 C — which is extremely anomalous for this time of year. If the sun can break through the dense fog, which is likely to settle into the area during the overnight hours each day, highs on Saturday could exceed 60 degrees. This will be especially true away from the coast.

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John Homenuk

Transitional weather, moderating temperatures this week

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While meteorological winter began just about a week ago, it hasn’t shown its face yet. It doesn’t appear that it will for quite some time.

An active, but progressive and warm, weather pattern is expected to continue over the next several days. Mild Pacific air will continue pouring into the Continental United States and, most notably, the cold air we are used to seeing infiltrate our area this time of year will remain bottled up in Northern Canada. While a few disturbances are likely to impact our area, the general pattern will remain progressive and no significant storms are likely.

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