John Homenuk

Wednesday Overview: Unsettled, then cold again

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Freeze Warnings have been issued on two consecutive nights, both Monday and Tuesday, as temperatures fell into the upper 20’s and lower 30’s throughout the area. A warming trend is underway today, with high temperatures rising into the mid to upper 40’s during the afternoon hours. The news isn’t all good, however, as this warming trend is the first sign of unsettled weather which will approach the area on Thursday.

This storm system will bring periods of rain with embedded thunderstorms to the area on Thursday, before cold air follows the storm system into the weekend. The latest and greatest information is all included below:

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John Homenuk

Monday Musings: Snow, rain, and baseball

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Happy Monday! We are excited to bring forth the return of our daily musings posts, which will feature an overview of the forecast with highlights of the weather stories from around the area (and occasionally around the country as well). Today is also Opening Day for a large majority of Major League Baseball teams. If you woke up this morning thinking Opening Day would feature chirping birds and warm sun, you were wrong. Instead, you were probably greeted with snowflakes and a nice cold rain.

A broad but relatively progressive low pressure system moving through the Northeast US will continue to provide unsettled, raw, and quite honestly miserable weather conditions throughout our area today. High temperatures will eventually reach into the lower 50’s later this afternoon, but not before hours of cold rain mixed with snow. Wintry precipitation accumulations are expected this morning in the higher elevations, but mainly on grass and cold surfaces. Here are the highlights for the day ahead:

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John Homenuk

High Wind Warning issued, strong wind gusts likely Sunday

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A powerful arctic front, associated with a strong mid and upper level atmospheric disturbance, will approach the area late Saturday Night into Sunday morning. Along with a rapid drop in temperature will come the possibility of showers and thunderstorms, followed by rapidly increasing northwesterly winds. As a strong low pressure area develops over New England, snow is possible for a period of time in our area on Sunday morning (generally non-accumulating), especially over Long Island and Connecticut.

The main story, however, will be the powerful wind gusts which will accompany both the arctic frontal passage on Sunday morning, and the developing storm system on Sunday afternoon. These wind gusts, tapping into very strong atmospheric dynamics and a powerful jet stream aloft, may approach and exceed 60 miles per hour at times both during the morning and afternoon hours on Sunday. This will be especially true nearer to the coast.

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Miguel Pierre

(Premium) Increasing Potential for A Damaging Wind Event Saturday Night & Sunday

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Over the past few days, we’ve been discussing on our new hazards dashboard the possibility for high winds for late Saturday night and Sunday. As we’ve gotten closer, model guidance continues to be consistent on this event. Therefore the National Weather Service has issued a High Wind Watch for the entire region late Saturday and Sunday morning. Details are still coming into focus, but confidence is growing that this could be a very strong if not damaging wind event for parts the area.

A vigorous mid-level shortwave will amplify and cause a surface low pressure coming east out the Great Lakes Saturday night to deepen rapidly over Southern New England Sunday morning. This will create extremely low mid-level heights and thus a frigid cold pool aloft — aiding in instability and dynamics, especially when combined with the off-the-charts vorticity being shown. An Arctic front accompanying this low will also move across the region late Saturday night with some rain showers, then perhaps a change to snow showers, during late Saturday night. Steep low-level and mid-level lapse rates and total totals in 50s show enough instability for snow squalls with gusty winds and possibly even thunder.

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