Does the tropospheric pattern change have staying power?
Winter has arrived. The first shot of arctic air in the young winter season will arrive this week — and it will be brutal, with temperatures in the single digits and teens on both Monday and Tuesday. This cold air will be short-lived, however, as temperatures will warm to above average late this week, as a mid and upper level atmospheric ridge starts to build back over the Eastern US.
Subtropical jet disturbances will be ejecting out of the Southwest United States later this week as the pattern ramps up in activity. The first of these disturbance arrives Friday and Saturday. At the surface, the primary low tracks into the Great Lakes region, while another secondary low forms over the Mid-Atlantic. A warm antecedent airmass and a lack of high latitude blocking should put a serious cap on any wintry weather potential; although some frozen precipitation remains possible in the far interior and higher elevations.