John Homenuk

Premium: Friday AM snow potential hazards analysis

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Forecast models have trended farther northwest — and stronger — with a low pressure system, which is forecast to develop on a frontal boundary off the East Coast from late Thursday into Friday. This is the same frontal boundary which is crossing the area this evening, and its eventual positioning offshore will have significant impacts on the forecast evolution.

Models suggest that as the frontal boundary moves offshore, a secondary area of energy in the mid levels of the atmosphere approaches the area. This energy provides enough lift for precipitation, with sufficient moisture, and snow will re-develop to the west of the offshore front. A favorably positioned 250mb jet streak could enhance precipitation on the northwest side, bringing light snow to the New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, and Southeast Connecticut on Friday morning.

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John Homenuk

Winter returns with multiple threats next week

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Temperatures will soar into the 50’s and 60’s during the day on Wednesday, as a strong low pressure system drives into the Great Lakes and eventually Southeast Canada.  This will, undoubtedly, leave many wondering if winter has taken its one and only stand with the blizzard at the end of January. Unbeknownst to most, however, is a large ridge driving into British Columbia and the Arctic Circle as we speak. This feature will help unload cold southward into Canada, and as a large ridge builds on the West Coast of the United States next week, multiple threats for winter weather will quickly make their way back into the forecast.

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Miguel Pierre

Heavy Showers and Localized Flooding Possible Wednesday

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A deep low is producing blizzard conditions over the Northern Plains and severe weather over the Lower Mississippi River Valley today. This low will track into the Great Lakes and send a frontal system through the area on Wednesday, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and some flooding in the local region.

A warm front will push slowly northward through the region during the day tomorrow. This will cause clouds to increase and areas of fog and drizzle to develop late tonight. Some scattered showers are possible early tomorrow morning and the midday hours tomorrow, especially northwest of New York City. Showers will likely become more numerous and widespread over the region later tomorrow afternoon and evening, via a strong cold front approaching the region. Some elevated instability may even support an isolated thunderstorm.

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John Homenuk

Premium: Midweek storm system hazards analysis

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A significant storm system will develop this week, moving from the Southwestern United States into the Central Plains states by midweek. In the Northern Plains, blizzard conditions are expected to develop, with significant snowfall and high winds. Farther south and east, across the Arklatex, Mississippi River Valley, and northward to parts of the Ohio Valley, severe weather is anticipated as the storm system progresses northeastward.

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