Western US Ridge will serve as pattern’s focal point

Much has been made over the past few weeks regarding the potential development of a large ridge, which forecast models once suggested would build into the Ohio Valley and Northeast States, providing widespread heat and humidity. As you may have figured out yourself, this ridge has yet to develop — and it doesn’t look it will at all, succumbing to the overall hemispheric pattern which has kept the ridge angled towards the Western United States.

Medium range forecast models were much too aggressive with the development of the ridge, once suggesting that the core of it would build into the Ohio Valley. In fact, for a few model cycles both the GEFS and ECMWF suggested that heat would build into the Eastern US, but have since backed off. The development of these large ridges is quite common in the summer (in other words, this isn’t all that anomalous), but the positioning of the ridge is often modulated by the surrounding environment. This year is no different.

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Transitional weather expected to continue through the week

Happy Independence Day to all of you! While today is a day to spend enjoying with family, friends and loved ones, we’re taking a moment to look ahead at what the weather will have to offer over the coming days. The pattern over the last several days (and even the past few weeks, really) has been markedly transitional — there has been no true established pattern in terms of temperature of precipitation. As forecasters, we are often looking for changes in how the atmosphere will behave — but this pattern doesn’t show any sign of changing.

Forecast models, especially in the medium range, are in very good agreement that the weather pattern will remain progressive and transitional. Multiple frontal systems and low pressure areas are expected to impact the Northeast states, with a few days of warm temperatures followed by chances for showers and storms, and a few days of temperatures slightly below average for this time of year.

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