John Homenuk

NYC Forecast: Active weather continues through midweek

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Highlights: Active and unsettled weather will continue this week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Temperatures warm into the upper 80’s and lower 90’s by later in the week, with warmth continuing into the weekend. 

QuickCast 

Hazards: A few showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon.

This afternoon: Seasonably warm, with highs in the 80s’. North winds between 5 and 10 miles per hour. Isolated to scattered showers and storms likely after 2pm, continuing into the early evening.

  • Hazards: Storms, a few strong, could contain heavy rain, gusty winds and hail
  • Timing: 2pm – 8pm

Tonight: Showers and storms tapering off. Lows in the middle 60’s with a light east breeze. 

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a few showers and storms expected during the afternoon and evening once again. Highs a bit warmer, in the mid 80’s.

Detailed Forecast Discussion

An upper level low is spinning over the Northeast states this week, and will lead to a chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Instability and wind shear in the atmosphere will be somewhat marginal, but a few strong/severe storms are possible. High temperatures are likely to be closer to 80 degrees today, but will climb gradually warmer as we move towards the weekend. By Independence Day, expect highs in the upper 80’s to near 90, with rising humidity and plenty of sunshine.

An upper level low is situated over the area this week, providing unsettled weather with chances for storms each afternoon.

Wednesday (7/1): Partly cloudy conditions are expected to start the day, but showers and some thunderstorms will likely return by the afternoon hours. Once again, a few strong to severe storms will be possible locally. Sea breeze fronts could locally enhance the potential for strong winds or hail. Otherwise, expect temperatures in the 80’s with light east/northeast winds.

Thursday (7/2): The disturbance over the area begins to slide away, with warmer and calm weather settling in. Temperatures will trend warmer, into the upper 80’s, but conditions are expected to remain mostly dry.

Extended Forecast

Later this week, high pressure will remain in control of the areas weather. This is likely to lead to a period of dry, warm weather through the weekend. There are some indications on the latest forecast model guidance that ridging could expand from the Central US towards the area next week. This could lead to a prolonged period of much warmer temperatures, with highs in the 90’s for several days in a row. Confidence is quite low in exactly how the pattern evolves, but is rising overall for a period of warmth and humidity extending through mid-July.

John Homenuk

NYC Forecast: Active weekend ahead, another cutoff low en route

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Highlights: Humidity will rise again later today, and temperatures will warm up again by Friday. Active weather is likely this weekend, with the chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially on Saturday. Active weather will persist into next week.

QuickCast

Hazards: Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon.

This afternoon: Warm and comfortable with temperatures in the mid 80’s. Dew points increase as we move later into the evening, a light breeze persists.

Tonight: Partly cloudy and a bit warmer than last night. Lows in the upper 60’s to near 70.

Friday: Warmer and more humid once again. Highs in the upper 80’s with a light breeze.

Detailed Forecast Discussion

Changeable weather is back in the forecast, and after a brief respite from the humidity we anticipate rising dew points once again later this evening. Temperatures will remain relatively comfortable, but the airmass will begin to feel heavy once again. Conditions turn more active this weekend, with a frontal boundary approaching the area on Saturday and leading to the potential for strong thunderstorms. Next week, the weather looks to remain active.

Friday (6/26): Mostly pleasant conditions are expected, although temperatures and dew points will be higher than they were on Thursday. Expect highs in the middle to upper 80’s, with the chance for some isolated afternoon thunderstorms, mainly across the interior. Mostly clear conditions are likely during the evening, but temperatures will be noticeably warmer than they were over the past few days. Low temperatures in and around the city may not drop below 70 degrees.

Saturday (6/27): An active weather day is likely, with a front approaching from the north. Showers are possible during the early morning hours with a warm front nearby. Thereafter, anticipate some clearing and warming temperatures once again. Redevelopment of showers and storms is likely during the afternoon hours. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, mainly west of the NYC Metro. The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the area in a Level 2 (Slight) risk of severe thunderstorms as a result.

Storms are currently most likely to occur across parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey during the early to middle afternoon hours. These may shift into parts of the NYC Metro during the late afternoon or early evening. As mentioned, the best chance for severe weather is in the interior, but heavy rainfall is still possible from storms impacting the city proper.

Extended Forecast

There has been minimal change to the ongoing forecast expectation. An upper level low is expected to drift southward from Canada next week. While the details of timing and intensity are uncertain, the position of the upper low should encourage a northeast flow, which would suggest cooler temperatures and a chance of showers through the middle of the week – with heat and humidity temporarily deflected away from the area again.

John Homenuk

NYC Forecast: Unsettled weather likely to persist

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Highlights: A temporary decrease in humidity occurs later today, but will be followed by the return of unsettled weather this weekend. Another upper level low may deflect heat from the region next week, and lead to an increasing chance of showers.

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John Homenuk

Warmer, humid pattern begins to settle in

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Summer begins today, and the weather pattern is ready to join the party.

Forecast model guidance is in good agreement that a warmer and more active weather pattern will settle in to the area over the coming week. In fact, almost all guidance suggests that temperatures will average several degrees above normal in NYC for at least the next two weeks.

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