Doug Simonian

Fall weather is finally here, rain takes a hiatus for now

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After what has been an unseasonably warm October so far, we have finally seen temperatures feeling more like Autumn over the past couple of days. A strong area of low pressure associated with the rain and cold front on Saturday has departed into Canada, dragging down cool, Canadian air behind it via northerly winds. A pressure gradient between this area of low pressure and high pressure in the Tennessee Valley will keep a blustery north wind in place this morning.

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John Homenuk

Mailbag: When will it feel like fall outside?

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Hello NYC, and welcome to our third summer of the year. It’s warm and humid out there this afternoon – again. It’s not all bad news though, as a cold front will swing through the area later Saturday. Cooler and much more pleasant air will follow behind it on Sunday and Monday.

In the meantime, we’ve got the second edition of our Weather Mailbag ready to roll. You hit us with some great questions this week. We tried to answer them all, but we had to push some of them back for next weeks mailbag – we promise we will answer them! Here goes nothin’

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Miguel Pierre

NYC Forecast: Dreary, cooler weather this weekend

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Happy Friday! High pressure will allow for more sunshine to mix with clouds through this afternoon. High temperatures will reach the middle 70s, which is several degrees above normal. For tonight, clouds and onshore flow will increase, as a backdoor cold front moves through the area. Temperatures will drop overnight into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

For this weekend, an onshore flow will continue to persist between high pressure to the northeast and a coastal storm developing off the Carolina coast. This will likely keep cloudy, cool dreary conditions for much of the weekend. Temperatures will likely struggle to get out of 60s in the area on Saturday and Sunday.

A few showers could develop over parts of the area later in the day on Saturday, as moisture convergence from the onshore flow increases. Then chances for showers will increase again on Sunday, as the coastal storm tracks a little further northeast and interacts with an upper-level trough passing to the north. But stronger high pressure to the northeast will likely keep any bands of heavy rain disorganized and south of the NYC metro area.

ECMWF model suggests showers in the NYC metro area on Sunday with a broad, disorganized coastal storm to our south

Some showers could linger into Sunday night. Then on Monday the coastal storm will begin weakening and heading further offshore. Chances for showers will decrease and skies could begin clearing by Monday afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s or lower 70s again with more sunshine.

Then a stronger upper-level ridge will build over the Northeast for rest of the next week. This will allow for warmer conditions to return with temperatures likely reaching the middle 70s again on Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak cold front may approach with few showers later on Wednesday. But temperatures will likely remain warmer than normal into late next week.

That’s all for today. Have a great weekend!

Doug Simonian

Locally Strong T-Storms Possible Today, Mainly Dry Rest of This Week

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Good afternoon, NYC! While today is not overly warm, it is quite muggy with dewpoints in the mid 60s. This is because there is a large trough situated in the Ohio Valley extending into the Southeast US, which is sending a moist airmass from south to north, into our area.

This moist airmass is important to the forecast, as it helps to trigger showers and thunderstorms — warm and moist air has the tendency to rise, potentially into thunderstorm clouds. You then just need a “trigger” — an ignition to the weather pattern aids the lift further to allow this lift to result in clouds, rain, and thunderstorms.

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