A piece of the polar vortex has decided to pay NYC a visit in the days leading up to Christmas. Its arrival will kickstart the development of a powerful storm which will bring rain, wind and a arctic cold front to our area over the next few days.
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A large and impactful storm system is expected in the Central and Eastern US during the days leading up to Christmas. Widespread travel disruptions are a growing concern. In NYC, the main impacts from the system are expected to be rain and wind. Winter weather is possible in the interior Northeast.
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While a cold rain continues to fall in the NYC Metro Area late this week, the weather pattern around us is undergoing significant changes. High latitude blocking developing over both Greenland and Alaska will dislodge cold air into the area – and also slow down the jet stream – next week. The eventual result will be the potential for a strong coastal storm in the days leading up to Christmas.
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Another storm system will impact the NYC Metro Area on Thursday, with periods of rain likely in the city and snow possible in the higher elevation suburbs. This is the second system to bring similar impacts to the area in the last five days. A colder and more wintry weather pattern moves into the area next week.
The weather over the past few days has generally been quite nice. Despite chilly temperatures with highs only scraping the upper 30s and lower 40s, sunshine has been a common feature each day this week. That’ll change on Thursday as a large low pressure system approaches the area with clouds and unsettled conditions likely.
The original storm system is actually centered over Minnesota, but high pressure to our north will force the storm to redevelop near Long Island. For the NYC Metro proper, that means periods of cold rain are likely later on Thursday as the system passes through. Rain is likely to be heaviest during the mid afternoon into the mid evening hours.
The storm system will wrap up to our north and east but rain will continue into Friday morning. Periods of showers could linger into Friday afternoon before the system finally begins to clear out of the area to our north and east. Blustery west winds will eventually usher in drier, colder air late Friday night into Saturday.
As we have been mentioning for more than two weeks, the weather pattern is going to trend much colder and stormier during the second half of December. The signs of this change have been apparent for quite some time and are now coming to fruition on most forecast models.
High latitude blocking in both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans will dislodge air that usually resides in the polar regions and send it southward into Canada and eventually the United States. High pressure north of our area will also buckle the jet stream and hold colder air in place – allowing for a higher probability of slower moving storms with cold air nearby.
There is strong agreement among weather models that an outbreak of cold air will surge into the United States next week, with much below normal temperatures entering the country and reaching the NYC Metro in the days prior to Christmas. Temperatures are eventually forecast to fall several degrees below normal for this time of year.
There is also a signal for a storm system emerging in the days leading up to Christmas – specifically from December 22 through December 25. Forecast models are hinting at a highly amplified disturbance surging southward from Arctic Canada. This system could force the development of a coastal system along an arctic front if it were to form similarly to how models suggest.
There is still a great deal of uncertainty and spread among models regarding how this system will evolve. Confidence in the forecast evolution remains quite low as a result. With that being said, there are certainly some eyebrow-raising signals appearing on models for this time period that suggest it’s time to start paying attention.
We’ll have further updates on the evolution of the pattern and the potential pre-Christmas storm system in the coming days.
Have a great night!