Miguel Pierre

The latest on Invest 99L and a look toward its future

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Good evening! During a quiet Tuesday afternoon weather-wise throughout a large majority of the Central and Eastern United States, attention has turned to the tropics. Tropical Storm Franklin continues to move towards the Yucatan and Invest 99L, a tropical wave well out in the Central Atlantic Ocean, continues a slow movement northwest. But how much of a threat do either of these systems pose to the U.S Mainland, specifically 99L?  Lets clear the air, discuss the synoptics, and shed any misconceptions about tropical threats over the next week or so.

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John Homenuk

Cooler risks likely to continue into medium and long range

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Much has been made over the past week or two in regards to a gradual warmup across the United States as we approach the middle of the month of August. With seven days of the month gone by, a notable breadth of cooler than normal air has spread throughout the United States. Despite the persistent forecasts for ridging and higher pressure to develop, an active and progressive pattern has remained in place, keeping things cooler and wetter on average.

As we approach the middle of the month of August, medium range forecast models continue to indicate that the risks for cooler than normal air will continue. Understanding exactly how and why these risks are developing will be a critical component to the forecast moving forward; both in terms of understanding the risk itself, and timing exactly when it will end and a transition to warmth will occur.

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Miguel Pierre

What the QBO and the sun can tell us about the winter ahead

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Take a deep breath — sit back, and relax. You are about to read our first post detailing some early thoughts for the Winter of 2017-2018. August is a bit of an odd time for it, we know. Not every year offers the opportunity to discuss the road to the winter ahead during the month of August. Some years require patience until September or October before we can start discussing early signals with confidence. This year, however, we’re seeing important signs for the cold season already as we speak.

This afternoon, we’re going to take a very early look at some of the significant changes that have occurred all around us since the end of last winter. It’s true — in the time between the day the last snowflake fell in the Northeast states and today, there have been significant changes throughout the atmosphere, in the oceans, and even in the patterns of energy emanating from the sun. All of these things will impact the winter ahead — so lets dive in to what we’re observing so far.

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Miguel Pierre

Premium: Heavy Rainfall, T-Storms, Localized Flooding Possible by Tonight

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Good morning and happy Monday! Mostly cloudy skies are expected today, as a storm system from the southwest begins impacting the parts of Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. Temperatures will likely not rise much out of the lower to middle  70s.  Showers will spread northward towards the Northeast states later this morning and afternoon — and some could produce some briefly heavy downpours. Chances for steadier, heavier rainfall and some thunderstorms will increase as the dynamics increase later today.

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