Miguel Pierre

Hurricane Matthew’s Potential Impacts on the Caribbean and United States

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Matthew unexpectedly underwent rapid intensification to category 5 hurricane on Friday. This is despite between 20-30kts southwesterly shear over the eye. Today, Matthew has slightly weakened down to category 4  hurricane. But still remains a very powerful and dangerous hurricane.  Matthew has been moving very slowly west-southwestward over the Central Caribbean. But is expected to make gradual turn northward later tonight and Sunday. This will take the eye somewhere between Jamaica, Eastern Cuba and Haiti Bahamas by Monday. Then somewhere over the Bahamas by Tuesday and Wednesday. So will Matthew turn towards the United States or will go out to sea? Well alot depends how it interacts with incoming trough and how strong the ridge is over the Western Atlantic.

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Miguel Pierre

Premium Weekly Outlook: A cut-off low brings unsettled weather and rainfall

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So far this month, while there have been cool shots, we’ve seen warmer than normal temperatures dominate for a longer period. It has also been quite dry. But more seasonable temperatures and unsettled weather is looking likely for this weekly period overall. So much-needed rainfall may also be on the way, especially for Long Island which is currently under a severe drought.

Today has gotten of to a chilly start with temperatures in the 40s over most of the region. Some interior locations and the Pine Barrens dropped down into the middle to upper 30s with some pockets of frost. Sunshine will dominate much of the day and it will be pleasant Autumn afternoon overall. But some clouds will begin increasing later this afternoon, as a frontal boundary associated with a closed upper-level over Great Lakes begins approaching the region. Temperatures will still reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across most of the region.

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Miguel Pierre

Premium Weekly Outlook: Monday downpours, then drier weather returns, but a cooler weekend?

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A shortwave trough and frontal boundary has move slower into region than previous expected. This has lead to drier conditions through the overnight hours Sunday. But more showers and some steadier bands of rainfall are now over much of the region this morning. Stronger forcing underneath of right-entrance of jet streak and low-level convergence along frontal boundary has increased, along with tropical moisture from the remnants of Julia off the Southeast coast, surge northward along the coast.  Some instability with a deep southwesterly flow is also aiding in development of some thunderstorms scattered or embedded within steadier bands of rainfall over region.

With marginal instability and abundant moisture, the main threat continues to be for torrential downpours with localized flash flooding, especially during the morning and early afternoon hours. Much of the area will likely receive near or 1.00” of rainfall. However, some showers and thunderstorms could train along and axis of unidirectional shear, convergence, and precipatable water values near over 2.00”, along or just ahead of the frontal boundary today. Areas at greatest risk for flooding will over poor drainage and low-lying areas. Some ponding on area roadways, especially likely as well. Significant flooding from rivers and streams isn’t anticipated due to drier conditions over the last few weeks.

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John Homenuk

Long Range: Autumn cold blasts, southeast ridge

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Meteorological Autumn technically began 9 days ago now. Although Hermine took much of the focus off its start and placed it on tropical weather, the first 9 days of the meteorological season have offered an ironically similar pattern to what had been observed over the last month or so of summer. Warmer temperatures have dominated in the East — especially the Mid Atlantic. Much of this owes to a Southeastern US ridge, which has built back continually over the past 2 months, even when forecast models have suggested otherwise.

Meanwhile, back west, cold fronts and disturbances have continued to drop southward through the Northern Great Plains and into parts of the Great Lakes and Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. By and large, however, the colder than normal temperature anomalies associated with these disturbances have remained west of the Mississippi River. Airmass modification has essentially nullified any below normal temperature anomalies as they move east of there.

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