John Homenuk

NYC Area Forecast: Colder, active pattern arrives late week

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After a very warm start to Autumn, which featured temperature several degrees above normal essentially from late September through the middle of October, the weather pattern is set to change. You can thank the North Pacific Ocean for that – while just one of many factors responsible, it is a big one – as the large scale wave pattern (ridges, troughs, etc) is changing dramatically there. Eventually, these changes make their way toward the Lower 48.

Most notably, a large ridge is forecast to develop from the Pacific Northwest into British Columbia and other parts of Western Canada. The poleward reach of this ridge will be impressive and quite anomalous, with 500hPa (mid level) atmospheric heights running well above normal. As this ridge pushes northward, it will disrupt the higher latitude weather pattern, sending colder air surging further southward into Eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast.

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John Homenuk

The Weekender: On social media, a stormy pattern lies ahead

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I’ll tell you what, I really needed a morning like this. Rain is steadily dripping on the windowsill, and it has been a gloomy (and slow) start to the morning. The coffee seems to taste a little better when I am able to enjoy a rainy morning like this. This weather has me reflecting back on the past week of weather – one that featured Hurricane Michael’s historic landfall in Florida.

More specifically, I started thinking about social media leading up the storm system and the way that meteorologists (and non-meteorologists) conveyed information.

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John Homenuk

Amplified pattern will eventually bring cool air, storm risks to East

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The North Pacific Jet has been a real bear of a forecast over the past few weeks. Model guidance has struggled with tropical forcing and the effects of re-curving typhoons (just to name a few things), and the results haven’t been pretty – we have seen a few shots of colder air modeled in the medium term simply vanish as they approach.

As you may be aware if you’ve stepped outside in the Northeast these past few days, it finally arrived. The pattern in the North Pacific Ocean, and hemispherically, is expected to change further over the next week or two. These changes will support continued amplification of the North Pacific jet stream, and the possibility of enhanced storminess in the Central and Eastern United States.

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John Homenuk

NYC Area Forecast: Autumn air arrives this weekend

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The remnants of Hurricane Michael brought plenty of rainfall to parts of the area overnight Thursday into Friday morning, with bands rotating onshore and producing localized flooding. This was especially true over parts of Southeastern New Jersey, where upwards of 4″ of rainfall was observed in some locations.

The reality of the situation is that it could have been much worse in our area. Michael was pushed seaward by an incoming cold front, and the pattern was slightly more progressive. If not for this, we could be dealing with a prolonged heavy rainfall event and widespread flooding concerns. Instead, Autumn like weather is expected to shift into the area this weekend.

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