John Homenuk

PM Update: Beautiful weather continues, autumn arrives

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Monday was one of the most beautiful weather-days in recent memory and, fittingly, autumn will officially arrive tonight at 10:30pm. Temperatures on Monday reached only into the upper 60’s (lower 70’s in some spots) and the low humidity kept things very comfortable. There was even a bit of a chill in the air at times, as a dry west-northwesterly breeze blew during the afternoon. Autumn will arrive officially tonight just shortly after 10:30pm Eastern.

Sunset tonight will be due west — as the autumnal equinox occurs. Tonight, the sun can be seen a “zenith” before its rays shift into the southern hemisphere for the rest of the year. That means that starting tomorrow, until the middle of winter, the sun will continue to set farther and farther to the south on the horizon. And yes, it also means we’ll be losing much more daylight each day moving forward. In fact, by this time next month, we will have lost a full two hours of daylight at a pace of 2 minutes and 40 seconds lost per day.

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John Homenuk

Large high pressure may bring prolonged pleasant weather

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The pattern over the past few weeks has been, without doubt, a progressive and active one. There haven’t been any dominant areas of high or low pressure in our area, but instead the pattern has kept moving with intermittent periods of troughing and ridging as well as multiple cold fronts. If medium range forecast models are reasonably accurate, that’s about to change.

Models are in good agreement that a massive trough will develop over the Western United States during the mid to latter part of the  next work week. With the mid level jet stream recessed into Northern Canada and no real high latitude blocking to speak of over the Atlantic,  a ridge of high pressure will build over the East. Some forecast models even suggest the high pressure could get as strong as 1035mb — totally dominating the pattern over the Northeast.

What does this mean for us? Well, first, we’ll be in a transition period. The ridge will develop eventually, as long as model guidance isn’t totally out to lunch with the pattern progression. But first, we’ll deal with a cold front late Sunday into Monday and a few mid level perturbations early next week. Afterward, it means that we’ll likely enter a period of prolonged pleasant weather.

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John Homenuk

Friday Forecast: East winds briefly take over

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It’s finally Friday! Temperatures started out a good bit cooler today than they have the past several, with lows in the 40’s across the interior and temperatures in the low 50’s even in the city and urban areas of Northeast New Jersey. They will, of course, rise this afternoon — but not as much as the typically would. Highs will only top out in the 60’s throughout much of the area. The reason? The east winds are at it again. Low level winds will flip to easterly, an onshore flow, this morning — and put a lid on temperatures while keeping the air cool.

Forecast models are fairly adamant on the idea that there won’t be much in the way of low clouds initially, so we won’t be sitting in fog and dreary weather all day today. These clouds will likely develop mid-day near the area beaches and shores, as they almost always do when there is an onshore flow. But even where the sun is out,  it will feel quite cool — especially given the fact that temperatures were hot and humid just over a week ago. The brisk, cool weather won’t dominate the weekend, however. The winds, which flip to easterly today, will continue turning to southerly on Saturday and Sunday — ushering in warmer and slightly more humid air ahead of a frontal system.

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Doug Simonian

PM Update: Gorgeous weather continues, 80 degrees Sunday

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While the first day of Fall is technically not until Tuesday, September 23rd, we have already had a lovely taste of fall and this should continue for the foreseeable future. In the wake of yesterday’s rain, an area of high pressure has filtered in, leading to sunny skies and temperatures in the low 70s. Some cumulus clouds are forming to the west as evidenced in the latest satellite — but those will not be producing any rain.

With clear skies and calm winds tonight, temperatures should fall quickly into the 50s, and perhaps into the 40s in the coldest spots.

Moving forward to tomorrow, the weather looks very similar today — but with perhaps a few more clouds and a touch warmer — with temperatures in the mid 70s. Winds shifting a bit more northwesterly as a high pressure system approaches will allow for a tad more downsloping flow, explaining the warming. On Thursday night, the high pressure will pass directly to our north, shifting the winds to the north and then the northeast, which will help to make conditions relatively chilly on Thursday night and Friday.

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