Damp Tuesday, but big warmup en route

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Warm fronts can be pretty deceiving. Depending on the positioning of the front at the surface, and the amount of warm air that looms behind the front, conditions can seem fairly raw and damp near and ahead it. Much of the same is true in our area today, as east winds ahead of a surface warm front to our south along with a weak low pressure system riding along the front itself will provide cooler conditions and periods of rain.

Waiting behind the front, which will pass the area early Wednesday, is a surge of warm air. Temperatures at the 850mb level will rise from around 8-9 C Tuesday morning, to 15-16 C by Wednesday — and even warmer on Thursday. At the surface, highs in the 60’s on Tuesday with clouds will rapidly rise into the upper 80’s and lower 90’s later this week. In addition, a westerly wind component should help the warmth get all the way to the coast — and limit the inland extent of the seabreeze.

Showers and storms, however, will linger through Wednesday before the heat arrives. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center suggests a small chance (5-15%) of a severe thunderstorm in the area as the warm front passes on Wednesday. Stay tuned for further updates. Their probabilistic outlook, shown below, suggests the best chance for severe thunderstorms will be farther north — where the warm front will be Wednesday afternoon. A slight chance of storms capable of producing gusty winds exists as far south as New Jersey.

Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook, valid for May 29th, 2013. The probability of any severe weather within 25 miles of a point is shown. A 15% probability (yellow) triggers a "Slight Risk" of severe weather.

Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook, valid for May 29th, 2013. The probability of any severe weather within 25 miles of a point is shown. A 15% probability (yellow) triggers a “Slight Risk” of severe weather.

Stay tuned for further updates on not only the potential for storms, but the impending warmup and warm frontal passage on Wednesday. You can follow our social media accounts on Facebook and Twitter for more frequent updates and posts throughout each day.

Clouds, drizzle will give way to a warm Thursday

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Spring 2013 certainly has not been “warm” by definition, with plenty of transitions and colder than normal airmasses moving through the Northern tier of the United States. There have, however, been a fair share of warmer than normal days — with several featuring high temperatures well into the 70’s across parts of New Jersey and New York City. Thursday will be another one of those days.

With a warm front moving through the area, some clouds and spotty showers are expected through the morning hours. With time, these clouds will burn off and give way to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 70’s throughout much of the area, with parts of New Jersey potentially approaching the lower 80’s. A frontal zone moves through later Thursday Night with a period of clouds (but little precipitation expected), and Friday will end up several degrees cooler — but still pleasant with highs in the lower 70’s.

The main noticeable change will be the wind direction, as west-southwesterly winds on Thursday will give way to northerly winds behind the front on Friday. Looking ahead, some more unsettled weather with showers and storms is expected as we move into the weekend. Details on the weekend forecast are forthcoming in a blog post later this evening!

PM Update: Warm, stormy end to the work week

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Unsettled weather has gripped the area over the past day or so — after a prolonged period of pleasant and dry weather. Over 2 inches of rain fell in New York City on Wednesday as an upper level low moved near the area and moisture streamed into the area. Thursday featured some rain as well, but it was more spotty and scattered as opposed to the synoptic type heavy rain which fell along the warm front Wednesday. The forecast will remain unsettled through the end of the work week and into the weekend, but a warming trend will also be noticeable. This will be especially true on Friday, ahead of a cold front, when temperatures could warm into the upper 70’s to lower 80’s throughout much of New Jersey towards New York City.

The catch, however, will be the disturbance approaching aloft — and the cold front approaching at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms will become scattered by Friday afternoon over Pennsylvania and Western New Jersey and could move into the area overnight Friday into Saturday. Although Saturday will likely be warm as well, thunderstorms and periods of rain appear likely with the frontal boundary near the area. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area in a 5% risk of severe thunderstorms (a tier below the 15% that would trigger a “Slight Risk). Clearing is expected by Sunday with colder temperatures moving into the area behind the front.

Stay tuned over the next day or so for updates on the approaching disturbance and cold front, as well as any potential thunderstorms and associated watches and warnings.

For a day-by-day breakdown of the forecast, check out our Forecast Brief. If you’re looking to get more details and technical reasoning, check out our Technical Forecast Discussion. Have a great night!

Pleasant pattern will come to an end next week

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[alert type=”info”]Don’t Forget! The Eta Aquarid meteor shower peaks Saturday Night through Sunday Morning. Good viewing conditions are expected with clear skies. Up to 30 meteors per hour possible. Let us know if you see any![/alert]

Blocking patterns often produce anomalous weather somewhere in the United States — and frequently, it occurs in the Eastern 1/3 of the United States. Not this time. The blocking pattern, which became anomalous late this past week, drove a cutoff low into the Central United States that produced an amazing late-season snowfall across parts of the United States. The unsettled weather, however, has remained over the Central United States thus far and has not made much progress to the east — as the block has actually collapsed overhead and high pressure in association with it has settled over the Northeast US.

This will change next week. Until then, however, a few more days of pleasant weather can be expected through the weekend and into early next week. The game changer will occur once the decaying cutoff low, once responsible for historic late season snow over the Central US, drifts up the Eastern seaboard. Forecast models are in good agreement that it will bring increased chances of showers and thunderstorms as well as cooler temperatures. In addition, a slightly cooler and more unsettled pattern looks likely through the medium to long term forecast period.

For a day-by-day breakdown of the forecast, check out our Forecast Brief. If you’re looking to get more details and technical reasoning, check out our Technical Forecast Discussion. Have a great Saturday night!