Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: Anomalous Warmth Gives Way to Cooler Weather Once Again

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Good afternoon!

The entire Northeast is enjoying temperatures well-above average once again today and tomorrow, as highs soar into the mid to upper 70’s, with even some readings of 80 degrees possible in southern locations. A brief return to more seasonable weather is expected later in the week before another chance for warmer temperatures sets up once again later in the period.

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Today Into This Evening

The ridge of high pressure that we talked about last week has indeed set itself up over the East Coast this afternoon, with light southerly winds overspreading the region today’s highs have surged into the middle to upper 70’s across portions of New Jersey and southern New York, with much cooler conditions noted on the coasts of Long Island and Connecticut. Offshore winds have really limited temperatures this afternoon, with some locations stuck in the middle 50’s due to the cool water just offshore. For the areas currently experiencing the warmer weather in New Jersey and inland areas, these temperatures are 20-24 degrees above the average temperature for this time of year, which is quite impressive considering most locations were at least 30 degrees cooler last week!

As we move through the afternoon and into this evening, only very wispy, high cirrus clouds are expected, so it should remain a rather beautiful Spring day as dew points remain low which allows this early warm weather to remain bearable. Once we get to around sunset,  light south to southwesterly winds will keep temperatures in the 50’s for lows this evening, with coastal areas possibly dropping down in the mid to upper 40’s as southerly winds bring in a cooler and more dense air mass from the Atlantic.

Current surface temperatures, regional radar, and visible satellite imagery over the region showing a relatively pleasant Spring afternoon (Courtesy of GREarth)

Current surface temperatures, regional radar, and visible satellite imagery over the region showing a relatively pleasant Spring afternoon (Courtesy of GREarth)

Tuesday into Wednesday 

The area of high pressure off of the Mid Atlantic coast will be examining our dominant weather force tomorrow, and will  in fact strengthen a bit tomorrow morning. This will allow warmer temperatures in the lower and middle layers of the atmosphere will be brought north early on in the day, which will mean yet another day of well-above normal temperatures for the entire Northeast. These warmer mid to low-level temperatures may actually allow surface temperatures to be slightly warmer than today as stronger southwesterly flow at the surface will act limit offshore flow. With low dew points, clear skies, and the aforementioned warmer temperatures throughout the mid to lower levels of the atmosphere, tomorrow should be another very nice day with highs once again in the mid to upper 70’s, with some locations possibly exceeding 80 degrees. Tomorrow has the potential to be around 24-30 degrees above normal tomorrow (!) and may actually see some records fall in parts of Massachusetts as some areas may get as high as 36 degrees above normal!

Later in the day and towards the evening on Tuesday, a very weak cold front looks to pass over portions of Pennsylvania and New York, possibly reaching the NYC metro area late in the evening or very early hours of Wednesday. Clouds will gradually increase ahead of this front as it makes its way eastward, with a chance of some showers possible. Any shower activity looks to be on the light to moderate side right now as the best dynamics with the front look to be located over Pennsylvania, where a few nighttime thunderstorms are possible. Even though the front will be passing through the area Tuesday night, the enhanced cloud cover may work to “cap” the atmosphere and allow low temperatures to stay in the upper 50’s, which may  break records across some inland locations.

Wednesday may start off with some clouds and lingering showers in the early afternoon, but depending on the timing of the cold front and whether or not it is able to move quickly enough to our east during the day, we may actually have a chance at burning away the cloud cover and warming temperatures back up into low to mid 70’s. The main area of cooler air looks to be delayed by 12-18 hours with this weak front, so by Wednesday evening or very early Thursday morning, temperatures should finally cool down once again.

12z 3km NAM showing much cooler temperatures just 5000 feet above the surface working their way into the region by Wednesday evening (Valid 8pm Wednesday)

12z 3km NAM showing much cooler temperatures just 5000 feet above the surface working their way into the region by Wednesday evening (Valid 8pm Wednesday)

Thursday and Beyond

The cooler air behind the front will be delayed, but not denied as temperatures on Thursday look to sink back down into the lower to mid 60’s across much of the area, with coastal locations seeing the typical 5-10 degree adjustment downward. This will be much closer to normal, with temperature departures only reaching around 2 degrees above normal for the warmest locations on Thursday, but with a stout northwest flow coming in from Canada and winds around 10-15 mph may make it feel a little cooler than usual.

Current indications are that an area of high pressure will drop down from Canada on Thursday evening and center itself over portions of Upstate New York on Friday, which should lead to temperatures hovering right around normal for this time of year. However, as that area of high pressure begins to get shunted off to our east, we may see southwesterly flow return once again just in time for Easter Sunday. This would bring the potential for above-normal temperatures to once again return to the area, but models diverge on the exact timing and duration for this at the moment.

12z GFS mean sea level pressure anomalies, showing an area of high pressure dropping out of Canada and into the Northeast on Friday morning and into Saturday (Valid 11am Friday)

12z GFS mean sea level pressure anomalies, showing an area of high pressure dropping out of Canada and into the Northeast on Friday morning and into Saturday (Valid 11am Friday)

With the Holiday Weekend coming near, make sure to check back for further updates!

For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day. Also, come interact with our staff and many other weather enthusiasts at 33andrain.com!

Have a great day!

Steve Copertino

Miguel Pierre

AM All Zones Update: More Warmth into Tuesday…Cooler Late Week

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Good morning and happy Monday! A strong East coast ridge will provide some very pleasant warm weather over the region over next few days. Today will be mostly sunny with high pressure of Mid-Atlantic coast in control. 850mb temperatures today between 12°C and 13°C with southwest winds with light southwest winds will support high temperatures in the mid-upper 70s over much of the region, especially away from the coast.

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Doug Simonian

PM All Zones Update: Warmth Continues into Early Next Week

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Good afternoon, everyone! We hope you are enjoying this lovely Sunday afternoon. Yesterday had more of a crisp, autumnal feel, while today truly feels like Spring with temperatures well into the 60s and even some low 70s in the warm spots. This is because Canadian High pressure that had settled into the region yesterday has now slid offshore, resulting in more southerly return flow and warming mid-level temperatures. A large mid-level ridge over the region has also provided quite a bit of stability in the atmosphere, which puts a nice cap in the atmosphere, and thus shunted vertical motion, which leads to sunny skies.

The one reason why it’s not even warmer today is because while the flow in the low-levels is southwesterly, the flow in the mid-levels has not yet turned that direction because the upper-level low from Friday has not completely moved away from the NW Atlantic yet. However, come Monday, the ridging will have a more classic orientation from SW to NE, which will lead to more of a true Southwest flow in the entire atmospheric column. Thus, temperatures will get even warmer.

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Steven Copertino

FREE Public Analysis: Damp and Dreary Conditions Gives Way to Above-Normal Temps

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Good Afternoon and Happy Friday!

The low pressure that moved just west of our area yesterday has slowly continued on towards the north and east this afternoon, bringing yet another gloomy and day. This low will gradually lift out into eastern Canada by Saturday, but stout northwesterly winds will keep temperatures somewhat below-normal throughout the day. By Sunday, some relief from this cool and gloomy weather should arrive as an area of high pressure builds in from the southwest. As this high locks itself offshore during the beginning of next week, we may see temperatures well-above average for this time of year. The question is, does this warm period last, or is it just a passing tease?

This Afternoon and Evening 

As mentioned, the very energetic area of low pressure that produced heavy rainfall, intense lightning, and even some damaging wind gusts for portions of the New York metro area has lifted into Canada this afternoon, leaving behind much cooler temperatures in its wake. Temperatures have struggled to get out of the mid-upper 40’s this afternoon, which is a good four to six degrees (c) for this time of year. When coupled with wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range, this makes temperatures feel even worse, dropping down into the upper 30’s and low 40’s. These windy conditions are due to the strong area of low pressure exiting to the north east of our area, producing a tight pressure gradient over the region as it presses against a high pressure system currently located over the Mississippi Valley.

Showers have been relatively persistent this afternoon across the area, providing some light rain or drizzle to really put the icing on the miserable conditions of this afternoon. As the last piece of energy associated with Thursday storm swings through, these showers and a weak cold front may bring some more showers towards sunset, with the possibility of a mix of snow and rain in the more inland/elevated locations. These rain or mix showers are expected to be very light in nature and no significant precipitation is expected to fall from these showers as support for their development gradually wanes this afternoon.

Mostly cloudy conditions should persist throughout the rest of the afternoon as the weak front and associated upper level energy wring out the last bit of moisture available in the atmosphere. Once we head into this evening, the remaining showers should die off and skies should gradually clear, leaving temperatures rather cold for this time of year. Most locations should see lows this evening range from the mid 30’s, to low 40’s closer to the coast.

Current surface temperatures, regional radar mosaic, and visible satellite imagery showing relatively cold and damp conditions this afternoon (Courtesy of GREarth)

Current surface temperatures, regional radar mosaic, and visible satellite imagery showing relatively cold and damp conditions this afternoon (Courtesy of GREarth)

Saturday and Sunday

As we work our way into Saturday morning, temperatures should be relatively cool to start off the day with 30’s and low 40’s being commonplace across the area. As high pressure begins to establish itself on Saturday afternoon, winds from the northwest will keep things dry, but also relatively cool. Temperatures should be in the low to upper 50’s across the area under mostly sunny skies, however the pressure gradient that was mentioned earlier will still be lingering over the region, so winds of 15-20 mph may make things feel a bit more chilly than they actually are. Overall, Saturday should be an improvement from the past few days, but will ultimately be a few degrees below normal in the end. Saturday evening should feature clear skies with temperatures in the mid 40’s, with upper 30’s possible to the north and west of New York City.

As the high pressure system begins to move to our south on Sunday morning, winds will begin to shift to the south/southwest with somewhat chilly conditions to start off with. As the morning progresses,  these southwesterly winds will usher in much warmer conditions by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures should have no problem reaching into the 60’s on Sunday afternoon with clear skies and light southerly winds. This will make Sunday the highlight of the weekend, but this is only the beginning of the above-normal temperature regime!

3km NAM showing temperatures reaching at or around 60 degrees areawide on Sunday afternoon (Valid 2pm)

3km NAM showing temperatures reaching at or around 60 degrees areawide on Sunday afternoon (Valid 2pm)

Extended Range (Monday-Friday)

With the area of high pressure centered off of the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday, warmer temperatures will continue to build throughout the week with increasing, deep southwesterly flow at the surface. This will allow temperatures to reach all the way up into the mid 70’s and possibly even low 80’s for southern locations on Monday and Tuesday. If such temperatures are realized early on in the work week, these would easily be around 12-15 degrees above normal for this time of year, which would be a remarkable contrast to this week’s dreary deluges.

In addition to this period of much warmer weather, conditions should also be much less active for now, as the storm track across the country leads the low pressure track well off to our west.

Temperatures should remain a good 8-15 degrees above normal each day through Thursday afternoon, before a potential disturbance from Canada drops down and brings in a chance at some more unsettled weather and cooler temperatures.

After this period of more calm and dry conditions, the Pacific looks to become much more active once again, so we will have to watch for more stormy conditions on the horizon as multiple systems line up to impact the western US and possibly travel east.

12z GFS upper level winds at 300mb showing a very active potential pattern shaping up over the Pacific, similar to the one that recently provided the severe weather and heavy rains (Valid 8am Thursday)

12z GFS upper level winds at 300mb showing a very active potential pattern shaping up over the Pacific, similar to the one that recently provided the severe weather and heavy rains (Valid 8am Thursday)

With some impressive warmth and a potentially more active pattern returning in the long-range, make sure to stay tuned for updates!

For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day. Also, come interact with our staff and many other weather enthusiasts at 33andrain.com!

Have a great weekend!

Steve Copertino