Miguel Pierre

Public Analysis: Heavy rain and strong winds likely on Monday

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A large storm system will develop throughout the Eastern United States on Monday, organizing first in the lower Mid Atlantic region and then shifting northeastwards. A large upper level low will form in the atmosphere, with impressive atmospheric dynamics shifting from the Southeast states up the East Coast. The dynamics of the storm are impressive: A High Risk of severe weather has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center in Georgia and Florida today.

Gradually, a surface low pressure is forecast to develop from the Delmarva coast northeastwards off the coast of the Mid Atlantic. A large area of moisture will surge northwards up the East Coast, with significant lift in the atmosphere tapping into this moisture and aiding in the development of very heavy rain. Rainfall totals of 1-3″ are possible — with some flooding in low lying and poor drainage areas.

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Miguel Pierre

1/21 All Zones AM Update on Significant Storm for Monday & Tuesday

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As we discussed, previous article significant storm will impact region early next week. This storm will could turn into major Nor’easter with heavy rainfall, strong gusty winds, and some coastal flooding during the high tides. Even some snow and sleet is also possible for some of the Interior locations. More discussion on some details on each potential impacts below for the all the zones.

Rainfall: Some rain could arrive by Sunday night. But the steadiest and heaviest rainfall will be late morning/early afternoon on Monday through early Monday night, with strong low-level jet moving northward through the region. Then low pressure transfer from inland too off the coast, weakens and occludes, rain will be somewhat lighter and more intermittent late Monday night and Tuesday.

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John Homenuk

1/19 AM Zones Update: Unsettled pattern will continue

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High pressure has built into the region this morning, and will set the table for fair weather during the remainder of the day today. Temperatures throughout the northeast are expected to remain above average, by several degrees, despite the presence of this high pressure. You can thank a modified Pacific airmass for that!

An active, unsettled pattern still looks likely to continue. The first in a series of disturbances will arrive on Friday evening. While the disturbance will be weak and relatively progressive, it does have a weak surface low pressure area and enough lift and moisture for precipitation. A few bands of showers are likely to spread north from the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast on Friday.

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John Homenuk

1/18 AM All Zones Update: Lingering moisture before high pressure

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A storm system which brought wintry weather to parts of interior New England this morning is still meandering off the coast of Southern New England, with a surface low pressure moving eastwards a few hundred miles south of Cape Cod. This surface low pressure will slide eastward (almost southeast at times) into the Atlantic. Trailing moisture, especially in the low levels of the atmosphere, will allow drizzly conditions to continue this morning, with gradual clearing.

The moisture will linger a bit longer over northern parts of our region, particularly Connecticut and Eastern New York. But gradually, low and mid level clouds will clear as the afternoon goes on. Even with the presence of a departing storm system, temperatures will remain above seasonal normals for the majority of the area — not even slightly so — with afternoon highs around 5 to 8 degrees above normal across the board.

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