Miguel Pierre

Zone 1 NYC Metro Test Blog

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Overview:  A weak disturbance will bring some light precipitation to parts of the region during today. A larger storm system will impact the region with more rainfall and milder temperatures tonight and Tuesday. A cold front moving through by Wednesday will deliver much colder air later next week.

Today (Monday): Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance light rain showers.Highs in the middle 40s.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. 40% chance of rain showers. Lows around 40 then temperatures rising late.

Tuesday, Mostly cloudy and much milder. Periods of rain likely. Highs in middle 50s.

Wednesday: Partly sunny and still very mild with highs in the middle 50s.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and colder. Highs in the middle 30s.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of light snow. Highs in the lower 30s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and very cold. A 30% chance of light snow. Highs in the upper 20s.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of light snow. Highs in the lower 30s.

John Homenuk

Winter storm increasing likely in interior New England late week

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Discussed at length yesterday was the potential for a notable winter weather event this weekend in New England, particularly interior locations, with the development of an impressive low pressure area in the Gulf of Maine. Forecast models over the past 12-24 hours have trended favorably for the development of this low pressure area, with a shrinking envelope of potential solutions on the table.

The most notable change has been a trend away from a progressive mid level atmospheric solution, which many forecast models had agreed was going to occur just a few days ago. Synoptically, this type of solution made sense — but a change in the pattern across the Pacific Ocean will lead to more amplification potential downstream over the United States. A more amplified disturbance driving into New England has led to the slower, stronger trends on forecast model guidance.

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John Homenuk

Late week winter storm possible in interior New England

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Amid a changing hemispheric pattern and active jet stream pattern, forecast models have begun to hone in on the potential for a late-week winter storm across New England, particularly interior locations. Despite the presence of a warm antecedent airmass and a relatively progressive-natured pattern (both of which will be discussed as mitigating factors below), the potential does exist for a winter storm that would impact interior locations of New England as an energetic disturbance drives southeastwards into the Northeast US late week.

Forecast models have responded to the development and energy of this disturbance as a reaction to a storm system in East Asia — yes , East Asia. We speak often about how weather patterns in the Pacific Ocean affect our area as well, and this time is no different. A deep storm in East Asia has built ridging into Alaska, which has shunted this disturbance southeast more quickly and with more energy.

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John Homenuk

High latitude ridging, and the return of a colder pattern

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Just a week ago, we spent time in our Public Threat Analysis speaking of about the return of a Southeast Ridge towards the end of December. Just 7 days later, we’ll be discussing the return of a colder, more active weather pattern as we move forward through the next 10 days and into early and middle January.

Far away from the Northeast United States, a strong storm system in Eastern Asia is set to kick off a chain of events — a wave breaking event — in the Pacific Ocean, which will help change an otherwise stagnant pattern there. Ridging is forecast to develop over the Northeast Pacific from the Aleutian Islands into Alaska and become quite anomalous by this upcoming weekend.

This may not initially seem overly significant, but it is. Large, anomalous ridges that develop from the Aleutian Islands towards Alaska and build northward work effectively to both dislodge cold air further south, and amplify the weather pattern across the Lower 48 of the United States. The pattern being advertised is much different than the one we have been experiencing over the last week.

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