Forecast Dashboard – Page 62 – New York Metro Weather

Overview

Briefing

Hot and humid conditions will continue through Tuesday. Chances for showers and t-storms will increase as a cold front approaches on Wednesday. More comfortable warmth and humidity is expected late week.

Forecaster’s Discussion

Near Term

Last Updated: 9:30am Thursday, July 26th 2019 by MP

Near Term (through tonight)

High pressure will provide mostly sunny skies today. 850mb temperatures around 12-13 C with deep mixing and light northwest downslope winds will support high temperatures closer to normal-in the middle 80s throughout much of the region. Humidity will still be relatively low, which will make for another beautiful mid-summer day.

Tonight, will remain mostly clear with light winds. This will result in more radiation cooling. Low temperatures are likely to in the mid 60s many of suburbs and in upper 60s to near 70 degrees in NYC and urban areas. Some of the far northern Interior valleys will likely drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Short/Long Term

Last Updated: 9:30am Thursday, July 25th, 2019 by MP

Short/Long term (Friday through Wednesday)

A warming trend and increasing humidity is expected as move into Friday and the weekend, as upper-level ridging builds and a return southwest flow develops around high pressure off Mid-Atlantic coast. Temperatures will trend above normal again with highs in the mid-upper 80s or lower 90s each day. Sea-breezes will keep shore areas a little cooler. A few weak passing mid-level shortwaves, thermal troughs with increasing instability could help trigger few isolated showers or t-storms over the Interior. But mainly tranquil weather is expected through the weekend.

A couple stronger disturbances moving along the northern periphery of the ridge, may increase convection chances during the early or middle of part next week. But very warm and humid conditions will likely remain with temperatures in upper 80s or lower 90s again.

Extended Term (8-14+ Days)

Last Updated: 10:00am Thursday, July 25th, 2019 by MP

Extended Term (early August)

The pattern for the first couple of weeks of August will likely dominated by the Western Atlantic ridge with more surges of warmth and humidity for the Northeast US. This is supported by the lower AAM/MJO forcing progression through the Indian Ocean. Whether or not a more significant heat wave develops will depend on how much the EPO/NAO allows for the ridge to expand. A weakness in the ridge closer to the East Coast, may also support an active pattern with more convective threats.

In fact, the latest GEFS and EPS guidance indicates strong anomalous blocking ridge causing a heatwave in Europe will retrgrode back into Artic/NAO regions. This may result a period lower heights and somewhat cooler temperatures over the Northeast US, before the Western Atlantic ridge can flex back again.

Hello

Weekly Planner: We live in the tropics now

July 23, 2018/by John Homenuk

It’s warm, it’s humid, and it’s going to rain a lot. Welcome to the tropics. A deep southeasterly flow (which, not coincidentally, draws air parcels directly from the tropical Atlantic into the Northeast) has established itself over the past 24 hours. Dew points have increased and so has the moisture content in the atmosphere, and […]

Weekend Planner: Unsettled Weather with Saturday Night Coastal Storm

July 20, 2018/by Miguel Pierre

Good evening! After some beautiful weather over the past few days, more unsettled, wetter and muggy weather is likely again this weekend. This comes as a large upper-level low moves into the Ohio Valley and a coastal slow. develops and moves northward along the Eastern Mid-Atlantic region. It may not be good day to go […]

Weekly Planner: Strong T-Storms & Heavy Rainfall Likely Later Today

July 17, 2018/1 Comment/by Miguel Pierre

Good morning! There is increasing potential for some heavy rainfall and strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening, as a cold front approaches. Before that though, it will be just be hot and humid with high temperatures reaching the mid-upper 80s or lower 90s over the urban I-95 corridor, with more sunshine into […]