Forecast Dashboard – Page 64 – New York Metro Weather

Overview

Briefing

Hot and humid conditions will continue through Tuesday. Chances for showers and t-storms will increase as a cold front approaches on Wednesday. More comfortable warmth and humidity is expected late week.

Forecaster’s Discussion

Near Term

Last Updated: 9:30am Thursday, July 26th 2019 by MP

Near Term (through tonight)

High pressure will provide mostly sunny skies today. 850mb temperatures around 12-13 C with deep mixing and light northwest downslope winds will support high temperatures closer to normal-in the middle 80s throughout much of the region. Humidity will still be relatively low, which will make for another beautiful mid-summer day.

Tonight, will remain mostly clear with light winds. This will result in more radiation cooling. Low temperatures are likely to in the mid 60s many of suburbs and in upper 60s to near 70 degrees in NYC and urban areas. Some of the far northern Interior valleys will likely drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Short/Long Term

Last Updated: 9:30am Thursday, July 25th, 2019 by MP

Short/Long term (Friday through Wednesday)

A warming trend and increasing humidity is expected as move into Friday and the weekend, as upper-level ridging builds and a return southwest flow develops around high pressure off Mid-Atlantic coast. Temperatures will trend above normal again with highs in the mid-upper 80s or lower 90s each day. Sea-breezes will keep shore areas a little cooler. A few weak passing mid-level shortwaves, thermal troughs with increasing instability could help trigger few isolated showers or t-storms over the Interior. But mainly tranquil weather is expected through the weekend.

A couple stronger disturbances moving along the northern periphery of the ridge, may increase convection chances during the early or middle of part next week. But very warm and humid conditions will likely remain with temperatures in upper 80s or lower 90s again.

Extended Term (8-14+ Days)

Last Updated: 10:00am Thursday, July 25th, 2019 by MP

Extended Term (early August)

The pattern for the first couple of weeks of August will likely dominated by the Western Atlantic ridge with more surges of warmth and humidity for the Northeast US. This is supported by the lower AAM/MJO forcing progression through the Indian Ocean. Whether or not a more significant heat wave develops will depend on how much the EPO/NAO allows for the ridge to expand. A weakness in the ridge closer to the East Coast, may also support an active pattern with more convective threats.

In fact, the latest GEFS and EPS guidance indicates strong anomalous blocking ridge causing a heatwave in Europe will retrgrode back into Artic/NAO regions. This may result a period lower heights and somewhat cooler temperatures over the Northeast US, before the Western Atlantic ridge can flex back again.

Hello

Behind the intricacies of the incoming heat wave

June 26, 2018/1 Comment/by John Homenuk

It is not often that we can confidently state “A heat wave is coming” so many days in advance, yet here we are. A heat wave is coming. Granted, it hasn’t been easy pinning down the details of this pattern. But forecast model guidance has largely pointed most meteorologists in the right direction when it […]

Weekly Planner: Cooler Start Then A Heat Wave Begins on Friday

June 25, 2018/by Miguel Pierre

Good morning, friends! Another gorgeous day is underway today , as high pressure from Canada (which provided excellent weather in the Northeast US on Monday) remains in place. Temperatures will remain quite comfortable and the weather very benign through midweek. A storm system approaches from the Ohio Valley and brings increasing rainfall chances to the Northeast states […]

Energy/AGwx Video Update: Tracking the Heat Ridge

June 25, 2018/1 Comment/by Doug Simonian

Good afternoon! While the main story in the short term is the continued cool and wet AG Belt, we are quickly going to transition to a pattern that is much hotter across much of the Eastern US. A massive heat ridge will build in the Eastern US, giving a prolonged heat wave with multiple days […]